Wow! I have almost an entire day where I am in meetings, and they release the schedule, and a handful of new story-lines. I haven't even caught up on the old stuff yet! Too much to write, too little time. I will NOT be writing about the schedule thoughts, predictions, etc. until at least after the draft -- to do so now would be to base it on teams as they were last year -- and as we all know, the one constant is change.
First off, I posted my Dallas mock today, and despite all of the news of the day, would like to delve into some draft issues a little more. (Mainly because I've only skimmed the main stories today, and haven't really looked into them.)
As I've been looking at Mock Drafts, etc. develop, and looking over the various need areas of the Lions, I settled on the D-Line last night. I was looking back at the mock-draft predictions and analysis from earlier, and have decided to waffle again -- in a way. No matter who is picked ahead of the Lions, looking at team needs below the Lions, there is going to be at least one willing trade partner down in the 20's no matter who falls to the Lions looking to move up and grab the last top-tier guy at a position of need.
Most notable is CB -- If DRC or Mike Jenkins fall to the Lions (likely if all the other players they would take vs trade are gone -- there's only 15 picks up there people...), Dallas (unless they trade for Pacman - LOL!!), Tampa, Pittsburgh, and others are looking to get one of the top 3 cover guys who don't smoke the wacky tobaccy. Despite the defections, there are still good ties between Detroit and Tampa, and they could set-up an amicable trade.
Another scenario is if Rivers falls to the Lions -- at that point we could be looking at the Jax trade scenario that we discussed earlier.
Another interesting Dallas point was recently brought up by Steamroller78 (our Dallas Pal) -- is Akin Ayodele. Not sure if he is a good fit for Det as he was an OLB in the 3-4 in Jax, and then 3-4 ILb in Dallas. He is a solid player, only made trade bait after they signed Zach Thomas to their already crowded LB position. Question: What value to you think he may have with the Lions, and would be possibly be included in a draft day trade in lieu of a pick, or say for #28 and #61, and Ayodele for #15 and Lions' 4th rounder? (presumably for DRC, Stewart, and Mendenhall?)
I've also seen rumor that Dallas wants a CB and another top flight WR first and foremost -- I've seen some sentiment that they can pick up a 5th round back to complement MJD. With those thoughts in mind, this question was posed: Would you as the Lions GM trade Roy W. and #15 for Dallas #22, #28, #61, #92, #126 (all of their 1-4 for Roy W. and #15?) -- I would probably say yes, but want Ayodele as well. What do you fellows think?
No matter who the trade partner, as the most recent poll is showing, if Mendenhall, Rivers, Williams and Harvey are gone at 15 -- a real possibility -- the consensus is to trade down into the late teens, early 20's. If they do this, I am convinced again after looking at LB and the DLine situation (which I will outline tomorrow my conclusions there) that they need to get either Balmer in 1, or a Big Run Stuffing DT in 2 -- at use the 2nd 3rd or a 4th for a DT/DE Tweener. Why you wonder? Tune in tomorrow, I'm afraid. I'd like to hear your thoughts and ideas on the questions above regarding trades, and the Dline in particular -- taking into account the entire Dline, and who is on the Roster -- set aside the preconceived thoughts by Killer and others and tell me what YOU would do with the Lions' Dline, and what pieces you think need to be added, and why. I gave you the pieces I would add, and will give you the why tomorrow.
I have it mostly written, just need to polish it off -- but also need to sleep. I will be back tomorrow. Exciting times everyone!! Go Lions!!
14 comments:
First, I must thank you for hosting a very good Lions site. I've been reading for a short time and you have a lot of good insight.
Regarding the D-line. My thoughts are that they need to add at least one within the first four picks (through 3b). Whether that pick is a DT or a DE, I think depends on where they play to play Redding. If they decide to move him back outside, then I see them taking a DT. If he stays inside, I see them taking a DE to push 5-0 and compete with Smith for a roster spot.
I think the first four picks must be OT, MLB, RB and D-line. The order will depend on how the board falls, but please do not take the RB in the 1st.
Also, nice article on the LB's. I had come up with the exact same scenario of those existing five and two new draftee's making the team.
Thanks again for your time into making this a good site.
I actually like nobsnubber's idea a lot about taking Balmer and moving Redding back to DE (this post was made in the comments area of the previous article entry in case anyone didn't know).
this would solve two major issues
on the D-line and give us a chance to solve a multitude of other positional issues in the draft. In this scenario we would still have a legitimate shot at Lofton in the 2nd round, but I'd definately trade up if there was a chance he might be picked by another team. Also, we could still pick up a DE in the draft, but could probably wait until at least the 4th round to do so.
With that being said, I agree that our DT situation is in need of dire help right now and if they don't fix that spot in the draft they'll need to pick up a solid run-stopper in free agency. I think if we're picking at 15 and can't trade back than there are probably better players we could be taking than Balmer. Thankfully we're in a position where there's a great deal of talent at a fair price so I'm sure the Lions be getting some calls in the draft room...it remains to be seen if they'll be the right ones though.
As far as R. Williams is concerned, I would take the trade you proposed but in my mind it's too farfetched to be a realistic trade scenario. When all this Roy Williams trade talk started everyone was saying that we'd be lucky to get a 2nd rounder for him. With your scenario you're saying that the Lions will basically get 3 draft picks and Ayodele for him (this is assuming that the #15 cancels out Dallas' 2 first rounders which is being generous in and of itself). Maybe I'm wrong but I just don't see this as reasonable.
I'm not sure on Ayodele because I haven't done any research on him at all so I'll let some of the more informed members of the group handle that. It does sound intriguing nonetheless though.
-StreetWorm
Keener - thanks! I'm of the same opinion!
Worm - I thought it was far-fetched myself, but here is what I thought was significant: Even with that, I still had to think about it, and possibly throw in a player and I'm still not sure. That tells me he's not going anywhere this draft. I disagree that his value is a 2nd rounder "at best" - he is a pro-bowl WR in his prime with NO off-field or attitude issues for his new team -- this makes him much more valuable -- likely too valuable.
Back to cleaning up after my youngest, and seeing if she's finally asleep. (sick, poor girl. Awake, poor me. LOL)
I have to say, I don't like the trade for Ayodele. What the Lions need is a speed rusher in the cover-2 scheme who can be a difference maker. If Ayodele was truly that type of players he would not be available. Your only going to find that type of player in the Draft and if you find a good one you hold on to him. That's why Harvey is a likely pick if he is still on the board.
I also don’t like trading a pick for a player then changing the player’s position. Taking a 3-4 LB and changing them to a 4-3 DE is a stretch. You just can’t plan on the guy being an impact DE. It’s just too much wishful thinking.
I still think if Harvey is gone (which looks likely) there is a guy that Rod really likes but it is a stretch pick at #15. Possibly a Connor/Mayo/Lofton type player. The question is what do the Lions do if they don't get a trade offer. Or the offer is to go too far down where they are in jeopardy of not getting the player they really want. What could happen is the Lions pick one of the elite CB's and then deal him to Dallas. When Dallas is on the clock, and only if their targeted MLB is still on the board, then the Lions trade the CB to Dallas, and select the player they targeted and get another pick in the deal. Otherwise they hold onto the CB and get the MLB a little later in the 2nd.
If the Lions don't schedule a press conference right after the #15 pick, you'll know something is up.
I Like the Balmer/Redding idea. It creates alot of flexibility. But, after last year I'm concerned that where every redding gets shifted its still going to be a area of weakness for us. I mean White/Cody/Darby(Balmer)/Redding should be able to occupy lineman, but we better address our LB to get more playmakers back there. I also agree its probably abit early for Balmer at 15. I think we can all agree based on the number of different scenarios, that we are in a great spot to take advantage of any talent that falls.
I've made myself approve of the Mayo at 15 idea. But I'm baffled how within a week, people went from us possibly taking Mayo in the second; to Conner, Lofton, and Mayo all being gone in the second.
Lastly on Roy. I Love the concept of tradeing him for all the value that we get. But not being a Roy lover, I still have to admit that I would be worried about our WRs without him. CJ looks to be one-of-a-kind specimen. Yet we found out last year, one nagging injury can really put a damper on his parade. Plus, the threat of the two big men down the sidelines is better than another lineman because it will force a team to keep 4 in coverage most the time.
Hope the little one gets better, and Thanks again to all for the great commentary.
DF:
I just want to make it clear that I agree with you on the value of R. Williams. For us, he means much more than a 2nd rounder, but taking this from another teams perspective I don't know that he would be. specifically, because his contract expires next year. Even if Roy really likes the team he's being traded to and wants to stay put, it's not a guarantee that he'd stay with them unless they immediately signed him to a long-term contract. Considering this, I can't imagine a whole lot of teams want to invest both multiple (fairly good) draft picks and a long-term contract extension on a player from another team.
Havig said that, Roy Williams is such a valuable asset to this team I agree that it would be hard to give him up even with the proposition in question (unlikely as it may be). So many fans are clarmoring that Calvin Johnson is the answer to our prayers so that we can unload Williams but I just don't see any evidence of such. He had an above average rookie year, but nothing comparable to the way he was being hyped during the draft. And while it is true that an injury hindered those prospects, doesn't that in and of itself speak to the fact that Johnson is anything but a guaranteed thing? We've spent five years trying to get a franchise receiver and Roy Williams is the very definition of that. He makes the plays when we need them, he cares about the team and wants to stay with us, and for being such a good player he stays pretty modest and humble. A lot of fuss has been raised about Williams wanting to return to Texas but from what I can tell is what nothing more than poor reporting and inept assumptions from a beat reporter (Kowalski). He took the fact that Williams went to visit family in his hometown and somehow stretched that into him wanting to go to one of the Texas franchises. Not only is this observation poor reporting...it's sheer lunacy.
Clusterfox:
Is there any reason you're not a big fan of Roy? I'm trying not to call you out but I have a hard time finding any fault with him other than a few poorly researched articles from Kowalski. I
agree that he has a lot of value and could probably command a decent trade for us, but doesn't the potential risk of losing him outweight the perceived benefit? (from reading your post I'm pretty sure you agree on this point, just asking this as more of a rhetorical question)
All of the things being said about CJ is what was said about Charlie Rogers: he's a great physical specimen, great hands, incredible athlete; he's as close to a guarantee as you can get. Then after he's long gone everyone points to the warning signs as if anyone should have known he'd fail, but in reality there weren't too many, all signs pointed to him being a terrific draft pick.
Also, I agree with you on questioning how Mayo, Lofton and the MLB prospects suddenly jumped from being guaranteed mid to late 2nd rounders to possible 1st rounders/ early 2nd rounders. I mean, you can point to examples of players who fell drastically after the college football season ended with no reasonable reason as to why or how (Brady Quinn anyone?) so I suppose you could use that reasoning, but I still question why this argument is being made for multiple MLB prospects. I think it's mostly just the feat that if we miss out on both of these guys the talent drops off quite a bit so the importance of getting one of the top 3 MLB's has got us on red alert. In other words, we've probably got an 80% chance (at least) of landing them in the 2nd round by staying put...but it's that 20%, what if, possibility that could really kill us in the draft this year.
-StreetWorm
Streetworm-You are absolutely correct about Roy,The only reason I pointed out I'm not a Roy lover( but I'm not a hater) was to add credibility to my desire to keep him at this point.
A thought just came to mind with Killer and PFT reporting lions plan is to get Harvey. How funny it is that there are so many "For sure" picks people are predicting for us at 15. I love it, It's exactly what I thought when Rod opened up about the draft a week or so back. Why be silent, when you can flood the airways with all the guys we love and need. All we need is someone to reach in the first 14 picks and more opportunities fall to us.
Lastly on the LBs,I agree with your 80/20 explanation. I just believe if you never gamble, you'll never get that great pick. That includes the 2nd round LB that falls to us, or the 3+ rounder that becomes a great player because we had to settle for him when no one fell to us in the 2nd. I guess I just feel that immeasurables stack up taller in alot of cases than measurables, atleast enough to cover a 20% chance.(ie Sam Mills, Zach Thomas)
My thoughts on the Roy trade are this, with our cap troubles this year, we can't afford to trade him for extra draft picks. There is not enough space under the cap this year to make this a reasonable idea. It sounds like a GREAT idea at first glance, but when you add in the cap figures, it becomes clear that it would be a bad idea at this time.
I agree with keener on on what our first 4 picks should be, and would only add the we should wait till the 3rd round to pick a RB.
As far the LB/DE idea, it might work, Grabble from UM has proved that a player can play both positions, and I hope he is still on the board in the 4th round, and that we take him. I think he has a lot of potential, and would be a good fit on the team that Rod is building
I don't think a trade fo Roy is in the Lions' best interests in terms of cap space; outlined those numbers (I think) in the blog a week or so back regarding the Lions Cap Plan. Because of the nature of the Lions' needs, those of the teams above and below, and the player possibilites, and realistic trade possibilities -- there is just too many scenarios to keep hammering at them all right now.
I did get some info from our friends in Dallas on Ayodele, which I will post in the next comment. A starting LB that could be available for the right price is wroth a look. who thought of the trade of Bly for Bell and Foster last year? Or that Williams and McCown to Oakland draft day? Best to keep on our toes because even Millen doesn't know what Millen is going to do next!
I looked around and tried to find any footage of Akin Ayodele, but all I could find was interview type stuff with a little bit of gameplay stuff in the segments. The best one I could find was actually on youtube, and it's new too. It's a television segment on (kia sports talk, I believe) Akin Ayodele.
Important notes on him though, are that he played at Purdue as a DE. He is a hybrid type player who can play inside or outside linebacker. He played outside for the Jaguars. It has been speculated recently that Atlanta really wants him since the position coach there has coached him at Jacksonville, but I think that he is just trade bait in general. Kevin Burnett is back healthy for the Cowboys, plus Dallas's first round pick last year hasn't seen much play time since Greg Ellis has come back healthy. With the signing of Zach Thomas, it is a linebacker overload.
His brother Remi has been in and out of the organization at defensive tackle also. When Jason Ferguson was injured last year, he was they guy they called in til Tank Johnson was re-instated. He too (Remi), could be traded. Anyway, here are a few links including the video I talked of earlier.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=Juhmv-NiVjw
http://www.nfl.com/players/akinayodele/profile?id=AYO148317
http://www.akinayodele.net/highlights.php
Thanks again http://cowboysnextmove.blogspot.com
A big thanks to Steam for that info -- for the right draft pick/player, who knows? Thoughts?
Hi all,
DetFan1979 great blog once again love to read all the great information and insight.
Below is an excerpt from CNNSI draft about how the mocks help or don’t. The part I find interesting is about the stretching or reaching to get a player you like.
A perfect example of a player who was never mentioned in the top 15 picks occurred during the 2002 mock draft period. The Raiders held two No. 1 picks as a result of the Jon Gruden trade with Tampa. Some people in our draft room loved the talent of Syracuse defensive end Dwight Freeney. In our mock research, we never read Freeney's name in the top 15; he was rumored to be a late first-rounder or early second. My sources around the league led me to believe the Denver Broncos were a potential suitor for him at 19. Seeing Freeney in the uniform of our archrival would have been my worst nightmare. We had made plans to move up based on our mock research and we felt that we would be safe at No. 17, two spots ahead of Denver.
The draft that year seemed to go as expected until the 11th pick. All the publications suggested Indianapolis Colts coach Tony Dungy and president Bill Polian needed to get a lineman who could add size to their defensive front. Unfortunately, it was not Wendell Bryant from Wisconsin as most mocks had suggested. It was Freeney. That one hurt. Our draft room in Oakland was stunned.
Was it a reach? Could the Colts have traded down and still gotten Freeney? The answer is a resounding no. Trading down always looks appealing to the fans, but when you have a player you love and know he can make a difference in your team's success, why risk losing him? The key to the draft is not what team has the most picks, but what team makes the best picks. The most critical lesson to learn here is one that was taught to me by Walsh. He used to say to me all the time during our draft preparation, "It does not matter where we pick them, it matters how they play."
Keep up th good work.
lionwing2019
Guys
I can't take credit for the Balmer-Redding thing. Another blogger posted that on mlive.
I think it is credible, but I think it only happens if they don't snag a DE, or if 5-0 doesn't develop (whichever is the plan).
I also think the dropping of Dan Connor is deplorable. The only first round MLB. Lofton and Mayo can go 2-3 each, and will both be gone mid-second round, but there is a lot of crap being disseminated by the media via agents. Remember, there are huge dollars between the first and second rounds.
nobsnubber
As I keep thinking over this, I still think that tradign down and taking the top MLB left at the end of 1 is the way to go -- they can get the OT in round 2 for RT, the RB, DT in 3. and fill in from there. Then their top needs (assuming they keep Roy) going into 2009 offseason will be LT, CB, DE and upgrades where available. A much more manageable needs list, that's for sure.
DetFan1979, if Detroit trades down to Dallas, it is likely that Mayo will be available at #28, and Keith Rivers possibly available at #22. See my mock draft, and the post right above it, and you will see HOW this COULD happen. I am like you after looking at Akin Ayodele and the value to the Lions though. It is questionable.
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