Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Random Wanderings

Like a herd of cats, my mind is wondering a bit far afield tonight. Soccer night, so this will be short. (plus 3 posts yesterday and today already!)

Things are really taking off this year as the draft approaches faster and faster -- St. Louis is no the clock, Jared Allen is now a Viking while KC has added the 17th pick to the 5th in round 1, and now has more 3rd's than the Lions do. PacMan Jones is a Cowboy, which significantly diminishes the chances of Dallas trading up with Detroit for a CB (one would think).

On the whole, not a lot of positive developments in regards to impact on the Lions, as far as I can tell. One things seems for sure thought right now -- there is a trend for big trades involving early draft picks going on -- and as the preference of voters on this blog was Mayo or Trade Down, the Trade Down part of that looks more likely. It also seems there at least a half a dozen teams so desperate to get a proven #1 WR in a very weak draft year, that they are starting to throw out stupid trade offers for WR that aren't even on the block, and that their respective teams have no intention of trading! Johnson, Boldin, and Roy W. are the big three, and Larry F. earlier this month. Wowsers! I have also heard a rumor that the Lions have secured at least a 4th round offer for McDonald, and are holding out trying to work it up to a 3rd. No credible source yet on this one, so I'll let you know when I know more.

My take? he has good hands, but bad awareness -- he never seems to know where the 3rd down marker is, or think to get out of bounds -- both things Furrey is great at. With more involvement from the tight ends, there will be a lot fewer 4 WR sets, so I think McDonald is the best trade option, and if he is indeed at least worth a 4th -- I would take it, but agree a 3rd would be even better. Considering the thin WR market and the cost of those WR available, I see the Lions realistically getting either a low 3rd or high 4th for him. Anything less than than a 4th I would say just keep him, and roll with the last year of his contract. Furrey is signed for two more years, and both are quite affordable (another reason McDonald has trade value -- they don't have to give up the pick AND a huge contract.)

As for my take on the Allen trade...high risk move for the Vikings, and very expensive. In case anyone is panicking about how Allen will set up shop in the Lions' backfield, consider this: The Lions can negate him and the Williams Wonder Twins in the middle by the simple expedient of running outside straight at Allen while making the big boys in the middle chase after him. Why? Because Allen is a sack artist, but as we discussed in the specialist blog, he is not very good at all against the run. As soon as they pull him out, what do you do? Why pass of course. Right into the freakish-awful Vikings secondary. You'll tire out Allen and the boys in the middle, and by the 4th quarter, the Vikings D will be worn out -- and unless their Offense becomes more than Adrian Peterson, they are going to be shut down as easy as it was to shut down the pass only Lions last season. The Lions Secondary has improved enough that I would dare the Vikings to beat me through the air -- because I don't think they can do it. And with the addition of Allen, they have one 2nd rounder to add in the first 3 rounds to fill their other holes. And Bernard-I-Drop-60%-of-my-passes-Berrian is their #1 wideout. #2? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?

Also, the fact that they got a 1 and two 3rds for a disgruntled franchised player says loads for what Roys value would be next year, should they choose not to re-sign him long term. At least Roy is smart enough about the business side to know the deal he gets, and the Lions get, will be a lot better if he keeps on talking...about how business is business, and he understands, and just wants to play his best whereever he ends up. As long as he keeps that line of tact out there, he will either get his payday (rightfully) from the Lions, or he will get it from another team -- while bringing the Lions a couple of first rounders. Maybe all this news out there isn't so bad after all.

Other thoughts: Mock drafts are still varying widely, and this is one of the most free-for-all drafts I have seen in a long time. Should be exciting. I will say, right now, it appears the Lofton, Connors, and Mayo could all be gone by pick 45. One guy I would say to look at later would be Wheeler.

I did see what I thought was a great article by Stewart Mandel, who covers college football for SI, regarding over and under valued college players. It confirms my gut feeling that I see Kevin Smith as the best back in this class. No stats to back it up, or film, for me. Just a feeling. At this point, assuming Mayo at 15, if the "big 3" MLB and 2nd tier OT are gone in 2, then go with Smith. Take Wheeler, Goff, or Dizon to be your MLB in 3a or 3b. Poss Pick up Langford for the DE, and Fluellen in the 5th.

If Williams OT is there -- I say take him PLEASE -- smart OT, good mature kid, and could really challenge Backus for the LT this year or next; and Backus would upgrade the right side - ugrading the whole line.

There I go again...if if If IF -- only two more days.

If one thing is certain with this year's draft for the Lions, it is that nothing is certain.



JJLions20 said...

First, Herding cats is a very difficult task. If you can do that you'll be successful at live. It reminds me of the Superbowl commercial by EDS “Herding Cats”.

As far as Allen goes, he is not a specialist. He is the real deal. Plays the run well, and has a good motor. You’re right, you will have to run at him, but with the Williams boys inside you will have to get to the outside. The Vikings will be pretty tough up front. The problem is, the Vikings don't have a QB, and hey don’t have draft choices to address the situation. Not as much of a problem if AP is there, but if he gets nicked up, that offense has big problems. All in all, picking up Allen was pretty good, as long as those character issues don't re-surface.

It seams everybody wants to trade down. It's easier said then done.

One thing I have not seen talked about much regarding this years draft are the two major changes. Only 10 minutes between first round picks, and I'm not sure how much time is between 2nd round picks. Will we see more trades because teams panic, or will less time equate to less teams pulling the trigger? The other change was having the third round lead off the 2nd day. In past years the 4th round was the start of the 2nd day and it was time to re-organize your draft board. Does that make the Lions two third round picks more valuable? Is the 4th round a little less valuable?

Anonymous said...

I think both rounds one and two are on day one and selections are only 10 minutes long.

I think 3-7 are on day two and selections are 5 minutes long.

I will try being on-line for draft day. I will not make guesses on who the Lions pick (probably) until I see what happens before them on draft day.

I think, so much so, this year it is take the BPA at their "need" spots more than any other year.


CHIEFGER139 said...

he will be needed to replace williams in 2009

Anonymous said...

I'm pretty sure it's 10 minutes in round one, 7 minutes in round two, and 5 minutes on the second day in rounds 3-7.

I'd really like to see the Lions pick up Brandon Albert at 15. I think that he might still be there, and he seems to be athletic enough to be a pretty good tackle. The other thing I like about him is that even if he doesn't work out as a starting tackle, he could be moved to guard and not be a total bust.


CHIEFGER139 said...

OTHERS HAVE MENTIONED HIM TOO-albert can play multiple positions like woody and many feel hes the perfect replacement-not a bad reach on your part(by the way woody was one of my favorite players)

if you followed the chiefs early bloggs i stuck up for him all last season and was one who kept sayin try him at tackle despite killers constant articles he will never play another down with the lions again.

rod won my respect over the woody ordeal and even rotated him in at guard rewarding him for hard work in practice. rod then i seen as a guy who notices hard work and gives a guy a chance for doing so.

of course we know rod gave woody the chance at tackle and he excelled and basically stopped the kitna sacks-then of corse we know woody became a top free agent and we lost him due to salary cap issues. too bad-but im happy for woody-and he will do well-

actually i hope foster has the same good luck ending with us next year-he has all the ability size and atheletism woody did and could well become the diamond in the ruff woody did,- albert has the same ability as these 2 to become a great asset on the offensiveline

-one who could play possibly all positions-hes that type of guy-your wanting him is a wize chiefs type decision-i dont think it will happen-they will probably take harvy or mendenhall or williams or otah if there there and if not any of the above mayo-

i mention mendenhal and stewert because thats what i want and im sure at least stewert will be there if not both-therfore i see no chance of what you want happening-not that its the smart thing to do just what they will do.


CHIEFGER139 said...

i know a lot of you come on herelate at night while chief is sleepin- m-live media guys posted stewert as ther choice at 15 our first rd for lions-us fans get to voice our choice also-mendenhal went to the bears already-hes gone so i agree with the medias choice-stewert would be awsome for us. us fans can now tell millen our choice were on the clock till tommorow-friday till 12 pm-they only give us limited choices at each position-but you can suport the chief by picking stewert

millen needs to know were behind him-if not stewert your chice

millen neeeds all the help we can give him-signed the wize chief