Okay everyone -- time to Mock our Mocks! Just how wrong were we??
First, I would like to congratulate...ME! I won (tie) theNetRat's Lions Draft Guru contest, and am the Draft Guru for the next year. By extension, you all win as well, since I took your input into account when making my picks and answering the "quiz" questions.
Here are the links to the three scenarios as I have taken them off the side panel:
Where they Fall
Now, the Dallas & Jax trades didn't occur -- however, that won't stop me from looking at who the Lions chose with their 1st 5 picks (so those who put down 4th round choices, which was almost everyone, on choose where they fall, I'll count that as 3c. Kinda.)
First up: Jax Trade
Well, the Lions traded down, but only two spots (funny enough, the #1 choice by an overwhelming margin in our Poll was to trade down to 18-25 -- and 17 is pretty close!). We know now that trading down with KC (for Minnesota's Original pick) put the Lions in a position to take Smith first.
Here's how we did:
First of all, those who whiffed so bad as to not catch a single pick:
A. Lambert, JJLions20, JCLions, Lopper, Chief - congratulations!
Here's what is crazy: Mayo was gone at 10 -- he was the most popular first pick, along with Lofton who did go 3rd pick of round 2 (#34 overall I think). JJ had us taking Lofton over Mayo assuming that BOTH were still there at pick 45, round 2. Most of us were assuming that at #26 a premium OT would be available, the other half assuming the same scenario at 45 -- Baker or Cherilous. Turns out those two, and Brown were all gone by pick 26! And Nicks, another popular selection, lasted til pick 164! Yowsers! Chief, Leo and Flip did all get our OT pick correct (albeit in the wrong round) and had us with Cherilus.
None of us fared well at all; the pick that we got right most was Kevin Smith with the 3a, although it actually occurred much higher than we anticipated. There were many who had Fluellen as a pick -- but in the 4th, a full round after he was chosen (myself included) -- and 2 or 3 had Avril on their board as a pick -- but usually with 2b. -- again, about exactly a full round higher than he went.
Considering how different than the Jax scenario the picks actually occurred (who knew Jax would sell the farm to get Harvey?? - that high??) I'm amazed we got any right at all.
It actually shows how in tune our crew is with what types of players Rod was targeting -- even some of the "misses" were guy other teams either snagged before the Lions picked, or traded up to get. Both Mayo and Crable went to NE...still think Mayo would have been a reach at 15?
The Dallas trade scenario actually came closest to where the Lions actually picked, if you sub out the 2b for 3a (#61 versus #64), then make the 2 3rds 3b and 3c. So to me, this is the mock we should have been closest on. We weren't. We were worse than on the Jax scenario!!
On the whole, most everyone's picks, including mine, almost totally whiffed -- Cheif actually had the best picks on that one -- he had Cherilus, but in the 2nd. If you flip-flop his OT-MLB and taking DE-DT versus DT-DE with the 4th and 5th picks of the draft, he was right on with position, just not player.
Funniest thing about this scenario was that almost every single mock had guys at every position and round going about 1 round AFTER they actually ended up being picked (myself included). Once again, Kevin Smith wins the most correctly mocked to be picked by the Lions award.
Finally, the "where they lay" scenario...Yoinks!
First off, while your humble Narrator was pretty close (I had the wrong OT in the first -- Williams vs Cherilous, Wrong MLB in the 2nd, had Smith right with 3a, but had Fluellen as 4 versus 3b, and the DE as 3b versus 4...still not too bad.) -- Le0sfan gets the prize!!
Le0sfan chose both the 3a and 3b picks -- Smith and Fluellen -- correctly. Go Le0sfan!!
JJLions and Anonymous both pegged Dizon as the Lions' 5th pick.
that was fun all! I'll try to come up with a better format for next year if I can.
The rest of us...well, lets just say we can make Matt Millen look like he knows what he's doing...kinda like Rod did this year!!
Don't worry, my draft analysis and grades will come along - eventually.
Keep up the posts on the UDFA's, and don't forget to vote in the two new polls -- and you can vote for TWO OPTIONS on the first, so be sure to do so! Please be sure to notice the new UDFA link on the side, and post UDFA and FA signing news there. I'll keep track of it, and update in summary on the main blog. I really appreciate all the analysis and input everyone posts on here -- keep it coming!!