Comparing 2009 to 2019 - The Roster, Then and Now

I decided what the heck, lets take a look back at 2009 then - and now.

 detfan1979.blogspot.com/2009/09/mayhews-mayhem-cut-down-weekend-in.html

I'm starting to miss this old blog again sometimes, perhaps a sign things are finally slowing back down for me and I'm in a better place. Also that my joy in the Lions is picking back up again... of course, in 2009 I was happily married with 3 little pink lions, on the beach to start the season. In 2019 I've been a single dad for quite a while now, I have 1 pink, 1 blue, and 1 rainbow teenaged lions (one in college now actually, an adult) and the Ex-Mrs Dfan is no longer in our lives.  My new fiance is, and she is an amazing Step-Mom, and a fantastic partner.  Regarding the Lions, after wading through the inane moves of one Martin Mayhew's first cut-down day, there is a listing of the final 53 man roster for the 2009 Lions in the post linked above -- I'm mixing it in with the current Lions roster just to highlight how crazy far this team has come.

2009 - QB: (3) Stafford, Culpepper, Stanton — Stafford meets Schwartz’s criteria, and has claimed the starting job. Stanton has shown he deserves a shot next season to fight for the #2 spot after solidifying the #3 spot this year.
2019 - QB: (3) Stafford, Blough, Driskel -- more potential here in the backups, and Stafford is a seasoned vet playing some of his best football this season overall. I'll go better based on his experience, but the backup situation is questionable, but are either backup worse that 2009 Daunte Culpepper bad?

2009 - RB: (3) Smith, Morris, and Brown — Cason is gone (for now, he always comes back) and speedy Tristan Davis made it to the practice squad. The Lions will be well covered here in case of injuries.
2019 - RB: (3) Kerryon Johnson, Ty Johnson, and JD McKissic. Hard to argue that these guys aren't light-years better the Kevin Smith-Maurice Morris-Aaron Brown combo. Seriously. McKissic would've started in that backfield...

2009 - FB: (2) Smith and Felton — there was no one else here, and no need for anyone else here. Solid.
2019 - FB: (2) Paul Perkins, Nick Bawden. I liked Felton and also felt they didn't utilize him well, which was common with players back in those days. I'm going to say Push at the FB position.

2009 - WR: (5) Johnson, Johnson, Williams, Northcutt, and Figurs– Standeford and/or Looker will be there to sign if an injury strikes. Still have a feeling Looker may be back if Northcutt goes down.
2019 - WR: (5) Golladay, Jones, Amendola, Marvin Hall, Travis Fulgham. It's hard to say a WR group is better when it doesn't include Calvin Johnson in his prime. However - name one guy behind CJ that could beat out Travis Fulgham even. Anyone? Bueller?


2009 - TE: (3) Pettigrew, Heller, and Fitzsimmons– Gronk was a long shot, and still has potential to make the 53 man vs the practice squad next season if he continues to show improvement. Considering Fitzsimmons’ injury history, if he goes all Dan Campbell (on IR with the Saints) Gronk may see his shot much earlier.
2019 - TE: (3) Jesse James, Hock, Logan Thomas -- Pettigrew was a pretty solid TE that was a good blocker and good pass catcher who was much maligned for being picked too high. But would you take him over Hock? I wouldn't. Jesse James looking good blocking/catching at least as good as Pettigrew ever did. And while Fitz gave his all and more to the Lions, this position group is the the very very solidly better group.


2009 - OL: (9) Backus, Loper, Raiola, Peterman, Cherilus; backups Jansen, Salaam, Ramirez, Gandy– I’m not surprised that they kept so many linemen — with Murtha and Gerberry on the practice squad they retained most of the 2nd string O-Line that looked so good in preseason (as did the starters). The Lions are finally starting to develop this unit. [NOTE: Wow was I delusional about the potential of that OL. Though I've since read the OL coaching of that unit was beyond horrific]
2019 - OL: (9) Decker, Dahl, Ragnow, Glasgow, Wagner; backups Crosby, Wiggins, Benzschawel, Aboushi. Look, I'd take the Lions current backups and they would be as good as that 2009 OL, if not better. I'm not saying the OL doesn't have its issues, but since when do you see DT's consistently knocking Ragnow anywhere -- much less like the Raiola days?

2009 - DT (4) Hill, Jackson, Cohen, Harris — Darby was cut as expected with his gas tank on “E” and Harris showed about the same as S. Smith on the field, only without the problems off the field. That could be a solid 4 man rotation, and not to forget Flu is listed here as a DE but will see plenty of time in the rotation at both spots.
2019 - DT (4) Snacks, A'Sahwn Robinson, Mike Daniels, Kevin Strong -- harder to compare since the Lions are doing a lot more variety on defense, however.... I like Sammie Lee Hill. He was a good solid role player who would be able to be the 3rd DT on this team. But the other 3? Cohen was a workout warrior, never translated to the field and the other two I can't even remember their first names tbh. No comparison to Snacks and A'Shawn up front, huge upgrade [Note: Yes, we had much better DT with Fairley-Suh combo for a short time in the middle before Mayhew effed up the Donald pick; but looking at where 2009 was until now I don't see how you can say DT is anything but at least twice as good as then...]

2009 - DE: (5) Avril, White, Hunter, Fluellen, Bryan– Bryan was an upgrade over IAF (theoretically) and hopefully will replace a lot of what the team lost when Devries went down. Not a lot of flash, but a solid dependable player. {knocks on log is using as chair around camp fire.}
2019 - DE: (3) Flowers, Okwara, Hand -- again the different defense, but we've yet to get all these guys healthy at once (or at all). Avril and Fluellen in a 4-3 did have a couple solid seasons. But would you take either one over Hand and Okwara? Flowers is low on sacks but getting good pressure. You had 2 additional DE on the 2009 team and I'd still take just these three over the 5 all day, every day. No comparison.

2009 - LB: (6) Peterson, Foote, Sims; backups Levy, Dizon, Bing– Bing is a guy who started to “get it” at LB last year, and really came on this camp and preseason. I liked Follett on ST as a gunner, but Levy and Bing did better as backup LB. If they kept 7 LB, Follett would be on the 53. Depending on how the now-loaded defensive backfield plays out, and how special teams looks, he could see the field yet this year. If not, he should be a solid competitor next season for a 6th or 7th LB spot — and we can only hope that the draft and FA allows the Lions to keep fewer people than the mass in the secondary now.
2019 - LB: (5) Kennard, Davis, Christian Jones, Tavai, Reeves-Maybin. Again they have fewer here but more quality. sims, Peterson, Foote would be an upgrade over the 3rd LB Christian Jones. But they'd rarely see the field with how many CB/S the Lions play most of the time. Davis and Kennard are hard to find anything to complain about back there, and Tavai was excellent for a green rookie that we are looking forward to more of. I fell like those 3 in a 4-3 would take at least 2/3 of the starting spots. Reeves-Maybin is a special teams ace. Levy had yet to have his breakout year, and then went on to not a whole lot later. I would find anyone hard pressed to say that LB is not an upgrade to the 2009 squad, if not a significant upgrade.

2009 - CB: (6) Henry, Buchanon, King, James, McCauley and Hobbs– Roberson made a good case to stick, but was injured and hidden on IR for next season. Time to heal, followed by another full offseason should lead to good things if he continues to progress like he did this year. Robinson finally gets the axe, and 6 is a lot of CB to carry when they are this…caliber. Less bodies, more talent next ifseason anyone??(edited last line for emphasis - At least I wasn't totally delusional about the roster)
2019 - CB: (7) Slay, Coleman, Rashaan Melvin, Mike Ford, Dee Virgin, Jamal Agnew, Amani Oruwarlye. Raise your hand and fight me if you don't think that Mike Ford and Rashaan Melvin would have been big upgrades at starting CB on that 2009 team. Anyone? Yeah. The secondary has come that far. Amani a more developmental guy and Agnew mostly a returner. Even Dee Virgin would have been an upgrade to the 2009 CB crew IMO. Bottom better and no one even close to Coleman, much less in the same stratosphere as Slay. What would we have given to get one of the top 10, poss top 5 CB in the league back then? Out expectations have sure changed!

2009 - S: (4) Delmas, Manuel, Simpson, Pearson — Not a star-studded S position, but hopefully IF… Stu played well for the most part in the preseason, but trading for Simpson bumped him. Likely #1 on the call list if injury hits.
2019 - S: (6) Diggs, Walker, Wilson, Killebrew, Harris, Moore. Delmas was decent when healthy. But was he better than Wilson, our 3rd S? he was more on pace with Killebrew, who is more a hybrid LB/S and we're talking about the 4th S on the current roster. Now look up there after Delmas. Repent, you always called for Safeties year in, year out, every year. Never argued the importance with you (one of the few things we agree on). The difference here is just profoundly unimaginable... and Harris or Moore would easily beat out any of the 3 guys who were behind Delmas on the depth chart...


2009 - ST: (3) LS Muhlbach, P Harris, K Hanson — the only three people who could feel secure throughout training camp, they are also 3 of the best in the biz at their respective positions.
2019 - ST: (3) LS Muhlbach, P Martin, K Prater -- I'll still hold to 3 of the best at their position, including the seemingly ageless he of the OCD snapper, most professional specialist in the league in that regard, multi-time probowler. This one is a push, though I think Martin is a better punter than Harris but that is a quibble...

And there you have it. Night and Day? I don't even think that is a big enough difference... The talent level at every position group is deeper and more talented -- in many cases, not even close. The 2019 Lions depth at OL, LB, DT, DE, S, and CB would all be better than the 2009 starters no question.

Next time you feel like taking swipes at 2-1-1, look back at that roster we claimed was full of great backups... and realize, yeah it was. WAS. Not anymore. Thank you Mr. Quinn.

TBH Coaching is a big part as well. Its the bye week lets dive in and discuss!!

Peterson: Yea, Curry Pay?, Step-up DL

Here are this week's questions for the Church of Schwartz:

1. Julian Peterson trade: Yay, Nay or Meh?

Right now, Yay. Ask me next January and I'll have a better answer. I looked at this trade pretty hard, and the main point is that the Lions were going to need 1 DT not on the roster in the draft whether they kept Redding or not. The FA pool of LB was pretty thin, and none of the ones worth overpaying at all even wanted to consider Detroit. I give Mayhew props for going out and getting a guy instead of just letting come what may.

I did a very detailed story on my blog last Sunday -- however, in my eyes he took Redding -- From a position where the Lions were say, 6/10 on a scale of no one to starters + Depth. They needed one starter. I don't see where that has really changed at all. However, at LB they went from a 3 up to about an 7. They had one starter -- Sims, and no depth. Getting an all-pro LB like Peterson in there allows for a guy like Dizon to be depth, and the Lions then only have one or two depth guys to get -- but more importantly, only one starter (MLB). It all hinges on how well those acquisitions do (Bodden trade looked good this time last year...) that truly answers this question. But as I said, my initial gut check after reviewing the situations is good deal for both sides.

2. What do you prefer: Aaron Curry at 1.1 or Stafford/OT at 1.1 and James Laurinaitis at 1.20?

Whoa there pilgrim! Stafford/OT and Laurinitis at 20 is my only option? Sorry, not sold on Laurinitis as more than a 2 down LB or run-stopping ILB in a 3-4. He may slip to the 2nd depending on what positions have a run. If the Lions stand pat with what they have, I can easily see the #20 pick being traded. There has been lots of movement of picks -- almost more trades than stand pat -- in the second half of the first round in recent years. Once the "money slots" are past, then teams start maneuvering to grab the guys they really want ala Ravens and Flacco, for instance. The #20 and #33 could get a lot of play, and turn into multiple picks each for the Lions.

As for Curry at #1 -- I am a total Curry fan. But the money has to work out. This is an ongoing little back and forth that NetRat and I have been having for the last couple of weeks. The most likely contract for #1 overall (non-QB) based on the slotted prior contracts and increase in the cap is likely to be (as per NetRat):

Estimated #1 overall draft pick non-QB contract

$2.5 million salary $2 mill roster bonus and $6 mill signing bonus year 1. Cap hit of $5.2 mill.
$3.85 mill salary guaranteed $2 mill roster bonus and another $18 mill signing bonus year 2. Cap hit of $11.05 mill
$5.2 mill salary $1 mill roster bonus and another $1 mill workout bonus year 3. Cap hit of $12.9 mill
$6.55 mill salary $1 mill roster bonus and another $1 mill workout bonus year 4. Cap hit of $14.25 mill
$7.9 mill salary $1 mill roster bonus and another $1 mill workout bonus year 5. Cap hit of $15.6 mill
Total $34.35 guaranteed, 5 years, $60 mill total.

Remember, the draft payscale is slotted, QBs get more, all the others get about the slotted amount, regardless of what position they play.

Keep in mind, Bart Scott's deal paid him $7 million a year as a top FA LB. Non-Pass rushing 3-4 LB (which are essentially DE's contractually/job wise) top out not much over that.

Take the top two LB drafted last year (all number from NFL.com Draft History)

9. Keith Rivers LB Cincinnati Signed 6 years, $23 million ($15.6M guaranteed)
10. Jerod Mayo LB New England Signed 5 years, $18.9 million ($13.8M guaranteed)

Now look at what #4 and #5 -- the lowest he is likely to slide -- got:

4. Darren McFadden RB Oakland Signed 6 years, $60 million ($26M guaranteed)
5. Glenn Dorsey DT Kansas City Signed 5 years, $51 million ($23M guaranteed)

From 5 to ten you are looking at an increase of $10 million in guaranteed money! AND the overall numbers (thought inflated more at the end) are also much higher. If the Lions believe there will be a salary cap in the new CBA, the only way I can see the Lions really being able to justify taking Curry that high will be if he is willing to sign a contract around the 28 million to 30 million max range. Even on a 6 year deal, he will end up being in the 10 mil a year range total -- about a 40% pay increase over the top LB. He's dead on when LB's are rooting for him to go #1 overall -- even if he takes a "lesser" contract, he'll still be setting huge records for LB pay and driving the costs up.

So why do I think the Lions may not do it? As NetRat says, it's all about the agents.

It hasn't happened (since salary cap was instituted), mainly because the agents know and the teams know the pay is slotted, higher for QBs, nearly the same for any other position and it's based on when drafted.

If an agent takes less, he will need to be able to defend his position on that to his potential clients the next year as all the competing agents are going to use it against him when trying to sign their clients. It's a cut throat business and agents play a fine line... they are not out for the team, they make money on the client, and they need more clients to make more money.

Curry is going to have to overcome quite a few obstacles to be the #1 overall selection. What we've seen about what Curry and the Lions are saying is that Curry is very much buying into being #1 overall. Just from his writing on SI.com and his statements, interviews...he wants it bad -- and not just for the money. Curry wants to be the first salary-cap era LB chosen #1 overall...only the 5th LB to go 1 overall in NFL draft... it's that even more than the extra money at #1 driving him. If he can get his agent to go along, and get a deal done that Detroit can live with money wise, then I am all for the pick -- and think the Lions will pull the trigger.

As for scenario 2, I say plan B. is an OT at 1 and trade 20. Otherwise, forget position and go BPA with 20 and 33. After all, it's not as if the Lions have so many stars that they couldn't go BPA the whole draft and upgrade with every pick in the first thru 3rd rounds.

3. Are any of the young linemen on the roster (Cohen, Ikaika A-F, Fluellen) capable of filling Redding's shoes?

All of the above. Based on what little we've seen, all three are capable of matching Redding's production at DT the last couple of years. Fluellen, with a fully healthy ifseason has a chance to get in there, and Cohen may turn out to be the steal of the draft. IAF will be the one that may slide to end at times on 1st and 2nd down, and then to DT on passing downs.

The real big factor is the Lions weren't planning on leaving Redding at DT -- the plan all along is the need to draft a run stuffing DT and that doesn't change with or without Redding. They have enough holes that they were willing to rotate in Coehn and Fluellen with Jackson & Draft pick to see what they have in them before deciding on what type of additional lineman they need. IAF will fill the the 3rd down inside rush role that Redding would have played -- and for less money. It remains to be seen if he will step up to the plate. But Redding wasn't last season so it was a question no matter what. If not, they can pick up another DT with what will likely be an early 2nd or 3rd in next year's draft.

This team has way too many holes to expect the starters to be filled in, much less the depth players, with quality talent in one ifseason.