Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Ebay Bid: R. Williams (Reserve Not Met)

Ebay Fever: Also known as "auction fever" or "competitive fever" or "decorate your home for Christmas contests". When getting what you want, or winning a contest, becomes more important than the contest itself, and the cost/value considerations no longer become the primary consideration.

I recently was looking at some toys on Ebay for the kids -- Transformers, to be precise. Not the new ones, but older ones from the early 80's when I was a kid. I got the old cartoon show from that Era for them, and they love it. I was bidding on a lot of I think 10 toys. They were in well played with condition, and the bid was very reasonable. So I started bidding. Then another guy decided at the last 15 minutes he had to have them. There were no rares in this lot. It was average, common, units. They were in very played with shape (perfect for kids to use). Then a 3rd guy hops in -- I took it about twice what I originally intended to pay at the most (double my original stopping point) in the heat of the bidding before coming to my senses and dropping out. I had been pricing them for a while, and knew what they were going for. I would have very much overpaid. They finally sold for 4 times what I ended my bidding at! (Proportionately, their "value" bid was $25, maximum value $50, I stopped at $100, and they sold for $400. Not kidding. Got a better lot for $30 bucks that same day.)

Whenever there is a bidding war, particularly among rivals for something they know the "opposition" wants, then you end up with an ending value ridiculously above market price. #22, #61 and a conditional 2nd or 3rd that could be a first next year if Roy performs (which you know he likely will)? How much will Jerry Jones, or the Eagles, or KC Pony-up to keep division rivals from getting a WR they want to have, but don't want to defend twice a year? It could get into $400 territory -- and if it does, pro-bowler or no, against my wishes or not, everything has a price. If the E-Bay Fever takes over, some team may actually say yes to the Lions and pay $400 for something that's worth twenty five to fifty bucks.

For the record, I'm betting against it; but I never have been much of a gambler.


Anonymous said...

It's definately a possibility that Roy's value will be severely inflated in the current market. Especially when you factor in that Detroit really doesn't have any desperation to get rid of Roy because he's still in a contract year regardless. Yes, FINALLY, the Lions will have the upperhand if and when a trade negotiation occurs.

The recent Vikings trade for Jared Allen also opened my eyes a lot to the Roy scenario. I didn't think that too many teams would be willing to give up a multitude of draft picks for a player when they'll have to negotiate a costly long-term contract immediately following that huge investment of draft picks. However, the Vikes just lost 3 fairly high picks (1 1st, 2 3rds) and THEN signed Allen to the most costly contract ever for a defensive player.

Coupled with this is the fact that no one's completely sure that we'll have a salary cap in the next few years so we may see a team like the Cowboys or even the Eagles who's willing to throw a ton of money at Williams and give up valuable draft picks in the process.

For the record, I still don't agree with getting rid of Roy, considering that he's one of the best players the Lions have drafted in the past decade. Having said that though, we may be approaching a deal that's very difficult to pass on. Just keep in mind that CJ is anything but a proven prospect ...at least no more than Charlie Rogers was.


CHIEFGER139 said...

i guess pft-put that cobb article about the bidding war to rest-no facts behind it at all-too bad-but it does sound like millen and rod are no longer saying roys with us next season for sure-so there at least keeping there ears open
still cant imagine millen giving up his prize positions-his big time receivers-even though i think he seen last year-them alone cant win games-in fact only averaged about 21 points a game and that includes all the points the defense and special teams gave them

i would give roy for a 1st rd pick immediately-even before the draft-very doubtful we can afford to keep him and cj in 2009-but hey maybe roys the one worth keeping

Anonymous said...

Well, I see Pacman is now a Cowboy.

Coach says there's no way that Roy's leaving town.

If some team on draft day offers a trade that the Lions can't turn down, Roy's out of town on the next plane.

I just think there's going to be a lot more day one trades this year than in recent years past.

Anonymous said...

"That there Clark is an R.V."