Monday, March 16, 2009

Cutler Me Loose?

The big no-news story the last couple of days has, of course, revolved around the Jay Cutler saga. Drew Rosenhous is master of the player "spectacle" -- but Bus Cook is the grand master of the "saga". Must have been all those years working with Brett Favre.

For those of you living on another planet, Jay Cutler isn't really thrilled with Josh McDaniels and Denver's new GM. Make that totally hosed off. While there are a lot of calls of "whiny momma's boy" flying around about Cutler, every time I see McDaniels I can't help but think I'm listening to a shady car salesman tell me how that lil ol granny only drove this car to church on Sundays...

When the front office is making the agents look like the straight-up, forthright fellow...well, let's just say maybe Cutler was right to be ticked.

Can you see Detroit trying to trade away Cutler at this point? Indy trade Manning? Pitt trade Big Ben? Even listening?

Where there's smoke, there's something making it (most likely fire or a smoke bomb). Whichever it was, there was plenty of smoke coming out of Denver writing a clear signal across the NFL sky that they were open to entertaining offers...

Rookie GM, Rookie Coach... Rookie mistake thinking it would stay quiet. Today they made a lame excuse that they would think of trading him now (after he has demanded it and not shown up to OTA's after two conciliatory meetings were anything but...) but only for the right players -- they don't want draft picks.

Oh come on! They are desperately trying to get control of a situation that has been totally out of their control at a minimum the last 48 hours. They may show him the money and get him to stay, but 5 will get you 20 he's not a Bronco in 2009.

But will he be a Lion?

Denver's defense was almost as bad as Detroit's last year, and it was Cutler slinging the ball to Royal (who saved my fantasy season) and Marshall with whoever the Bronco's signed off the street that week running the ball that got Denver the wins it did...

Their offense was great...Defense got Shannahan fired.

So Cutler can get it done. He would have CJ as a target, a huge plus when trying to entice a QB. He would also have near deity status in Detroit so stroking the ego, no problem.

What would Detroit give for him? I have heard dozens of scenarios -- from the absurd to the pretty reasonable. A reworked deal will have to be part of any trade, and the Lions have a good relationship with Bus Cook (who is also CJ's agent) and plenty of cap space for a real QB -- especially since they could get another 5 mil back by dumping Culpepper if they land Cutler and keeping Stanton as the backup. Or reworking C-Pepps deal again.

But what would it cost?

Not too many players Detroit would want to give up that Denver would want. Broncos are switching to a 3-4 defensive scheme, and any 3-4 type guys the Lions have (Avril) are some of the few they want to build around. Offensively, I can't think of anyone the Broncos would want outside of Kevin Smith -- and even then, RB's are not too hard to find.

No, despite the senseless babble from the Broncos, it will be picks. I've heard of 3-way deals with Cleveland, but that seems a little too convoluted to work. There is a reason there aren't that many 3-way deals: too many moving parts, to easy to fall apart.

One scenario has Cutler for just #20. Seems a little light to me, but would be a coup for the Lions. Another is #20 and #82 - the Roy picks. I would take Roy for Cutler, essentially, straight up -- wouldn't you? Yet a third (and most often bandied about) is #1 overall and #20 for Cutler and #12. Denver gets #1 to take a new QB (Stafford) whom they can groom behind Simms for a year or two while they rebuild the D and still have #20 to help with that defensive rebuilding. Detroit would essentially be taking Cutler instead of Stafford with the #1 overall, and be moving up 8 spots to 12 where a big guy like Raji may be, one of the top OT's will likely still be around, as well as a couple of the top LB. In other words, Lions would have a QB AND have #12, 33, 65, 82 to develop the D.

Still, all of this is just rumor and speculation. Fortunately, after the ifseason so far while I can see that Mayhew will be aggressive in his moves he is not going to overpay by too much -- whether that is in draft picks or salaries. Sure, he'd like Cutler -- but Denver is the desperate one, and unlike Millen I don't think he is going to forget who is really in charge of the situation. Status quo for the Lions is just fine -- build with those picks. If the price is right however, Mayhew won't hesitate to buy.


Anonymous said...

1. Getting Cutler would be nice but I just can't see overpaying for him to do so. We still don't know what we have in Drew Stanton and I believe he will prove everyone wrong and be a pretty good quarterback (I just hope his misfortune with injuries/durability are over with. It is getting hard to defend/argue off the people calling him "china doll"). With that said IMHO Jay is worth our second round and maybe a 3rd or 5th to sweeten the pot but that is all he is worth (Cassel and Vrabel went for a second. Cassel threw for back to back 400+ yard games, something Tom Brady has never done with that offense and prior to that he was getting splinters in his ass for years so don't tell me he is a one hit wonder until he proves otherwise although Bellichek does have a way of making the most of his talent).
2. There are still some pretty good FA quarterbacks out there that command no draft picks, only money. Go and get one or two and let Cpep, Stanton and whomever fight it out in Spring training.
3. It isn't the end of the world if we don't get Cutler. I'm sure Mayhew, Schwartz and company would rather keep their draft picks to get some new talent in here to compete for jobs and pick up a free agent QB for some spring training competition. I'm sure Schwartz with his crazy compulsiveness for over studying the game will tell you that he doesn't need a franchise quarterback to make it to the playoffs and the big game, heck he can probably tell you the percentages of teams that have and haven't made it with and without one (which would/could be completely arguable as everyone has a different definition of what an actual franchise quarterback really is).
4. Would I like to see Jay our quarterback? Hell yes but not at the expense of not being able to bring in as much young talent as possible so we can field a competitive team next year. Sometimes you have to step back and take your emotions out of it so you can realize that the decision that has to be made is the one that will make this a better team in the long run (I know that is something that most fans can't fathom).

To summarize: I don't want to see us over pay to get Jay because there are some pretty good quarterbacks still on the market that can come in here and do us pretty well for a couple years (and not cost us any draft picks) during that time we can sort out what we have on the roster and what we will need to do in the long run. With that said I can't wait for the draft and to see what surprising moves our new front office has in store for us. IMHO just say no to any quarterbacks in the first two rounds (Pat White or Rhett Bohmar may be some good prospects in the forth or third rounds but before that I would prefer to fix the trenches and our Mike positions, heck even get another young defensive back in here before we even consider quarterback this year (in the draft that is). Take care all and Go Lions!


CHIEFGER139 said...

if the lions got cutler my interest in them would increse ten fold, hes that good in my opinion, on the other hand my interest in drafting stafford would decrease my interest 3 fold-I guess im as excited about cutler as the stafford lovers are him-to me no price is too high, i just hope it gets done and soon!!

Mark in AZ said...

My 2 cents on Culter is a deal will not happen until draft day if it happens at all.

If I was the Broncos I would not trade I would make him play I think he's being stupid everone is trade bait in any league. See stories on Stevie Y of the Red Wings he didn't cry when the Wings were going to trade him in 92-93.

I belive they are going to take a hard look at C. Pepper and Stanton and see what they have. I step up to china doll sayers Frist on the knee it was to take out scar tissue and help out with swolling and pain that's all two weeks off for a repair that happen on special teams at MSU his first year. How can you put a guy on IR for only two weeks out. It was a simple scope to remove scar tissue. Next on the thumb many QB's have had the same injury Warner, Bulger to name only 2. So China doll get real peeps.

Enought of the rant on that sorry guys just upset about that.

They need to see what they have in him. over at ESPN we all know of the break down of first round QB's and the forumla to help show success it's in a archive blog for the NFC North and Kevin Seifert a guy from MI. did the forumla and Stanton scored a +29.05 just to let people know.

I like Cutler but I don't like giving up so much to get him and still have so many holes we need the picks and to built thru the draft.

JJLions20 said...

The Cutler deal does not add up from a Denver point of view unless somebody gives up a lot for him. Is he worth the #1 pick... Probably, because he is more proven than he was when he came out. But he is not worth the #1, #3, and next years #2, as some rumors have it. Step back and ask why would a first year coach want to be linked to trading away a young franchise QB, without a viable replacement in the plans. If he is not winning by early in year #2 the fans will be lynching him up. They will be screaming for Shanahan to be brought back. This looks like career suicide to me.
I have this feeling The Lions would like to trade down a few spots and still pick up one of the top OT's. Then get the MLB with the #20 pick. If Sanchez is there with the first pick in the 2nd round he could be the pick. Then Defense the rest of the way. Maybe an OG or TE on the 2nd day.
If the Lions could move down a couple slots and pick up another 2nd rounder then that would be great. I just don't see the enthusiasm about any player to make somebody trade up.
Lets remember one thing. As the Draft date gets closer, the frenzy picks up and the 2 days before the draft somebody may leap at the #1 pick. Meyhew would be smart to wait until there is less than 24 hours.

Isphet said...

Nice article. One question though. WHO THE HELL IS JAY CUTLER?!?!?

DetFan1979 said...

Internet is out at home, so one quick comment. Appears to be fixed, so tonight should see a new article.

For now, quick thoughts on your comments:

Isphet: LOL. Nice. Seems that is all anyone is talking about right now. Slow news week, I guess. But how often does a 26 yr old pro-bowl QB even come close to being available?

Lik, Mark, JJ -- I agree that to even entertain trading Cutler is not so bright, but they made their bed and not much at this point --even a fat new contract -- is going to do much to help their situation.

That being said, Mayhew will not overpay. All along, they forewent going after one "super" guy, and got 3 "good" guys instead. I can see the same coming into play here. If Denver, like Dallas with acquiring Roy W. last season, feels desperate or like they need to do something Mayhew will be there to take full advantage of the situation.

He fleeced Dallas when Jerry was feeling insecure, and now he looks to be building on that in an attempt to sweep in and take advantage of Denver after they screwed up.

Isn't this a novel experience as a Lions fan? A Lions GM taking advantage of opportunities and other teams' mistakes instead of being the one creating opportunities for other teams?

Everyone seems fixated on #1 overall -- I think Lions are stuck there. But #20 and #33 are VERY tradeable as the past couple of drafts have shown a lot of movement in that part of the draft. Lions could move out of 20 and into the 2nd and pick up a 3rd, or move out of 33 and pick up a later 2nd and a 3rd as teams jockey to grab guys they want who have slid, but not far enough for them to get.

Isphet said...

random thought of the day:

I think the Lions might change their blue to the same blue that Ford uses as it's official color. It makes sense at least. I'd be OK with it.