Friday, May 9, 2008

Draft Recap/Eval Part 4: Wrap Up

I know all of you are familiar with how long I think it is before a draft can be fully evaluated. However, as I outlined last month, there are a couple of methods that I will use immediately following the draft to see how A. The Lions did getting guys based on "projection" and "potential" (two words that end up wrong 50% of the time.) and B. How the GM did running the draft.

In Part 1, I addressed the GM. Part 2 will addressed rounds 1-2. Part 3 will addressed rounds 3-7. Part 4 is my final overview of the big picture.

After this, it will be on to the off season and information from mini-camps, off season moves, and new position evaluations as the players/situations change.

This summary will actually be quite short -- mainly because I was so thorough in the first 3, that I really don't have a lot left to say. I agree with those who think that 8 of 9 are on track to make the roster at this point, although it's hard to say -- I'm thinking that it could be 7 of 9 (with Cohen and Moore going to the practice squad). It really depends on camp.

I am also on board that they filled needs. Looking back on my pre-draft assessments in the 2 months leading up to the draft, through the off season, one thing has become very apparent: There is, after this draft, competition at almost every position in one form or another. And, as I said would happen if the Lions had a good draft, it appears for the first time since Millen took over, the impossible has a chance to occur:

By all rights, once the camp battles shake out the Detroit Lions will have average or better players, with some fantastic players, at every position. If they are lucky with injuries, and rework contracts right at the end of the season, they will go into FA and the draft looking to improve the quality of starters, instead of filling gaping holes.

I said before the draft I was looking for them to fill the major holes with guys that had more "play" than "potential" -- guys that could step in and at least push to start, elevating the play of the vets in front of them. the Lions exceeded my somewhat limited expectations by doing this not only in the early rounds, but right through the last pick.

On the whole, Millen and Marinelli ran the most organized, focused draft the Lions have had in the last 10 - 15 years hands down.

Whats Ahead: I've got some new story ideas from the off season news coming in, and will begin giving my take on the upcoming position battles and how the roster is looking right now. I'll even reference back to my earlier takes, and see where I was right (and wrong) about how they would go in the draft.

It appears most of you agreed with my feelings: Excited - Filled Needs for Once.

Go Lions!! Here's to turning "potential" into "production".


Anonymous said...

Hey, last year Killer did a decent job highlighting all players from Don Muhlbach to Ernie Sims. I think that would kinda be interesting. Maybe we could find some cool human interest stories about these guys.

The other thing, we could highlight who is on the final 53 roster/predictions after the May 22nd camp.

I'll toss one out there.


DetFan1979 said...

sounds like a good idea to me. I'll post my "guess" for each position group, and then everyone can comment on what they think.

I'll be highlighting what I predict the battles to be leading up to it as well.

I was planning on trying to do something along the lines of the whole roster eval thing this summer after camp breaks, but before the preseason; or possibly bewteen the may camp and training camp. we'll see where I run short of other things to write about LOL

Anonymous said...

Is there any way we could create a new post about the potential for next year's compensatory picks in the draft?

We did a pretty good job of an initial overview of the subject in Draft Recap Part 3. Still, if we did a little more research we could get a much better idea of what will happen in the future. Plus, I think it would be interesting to go back next year and determine how accurate we really were.

I like nubs' idea too. I wasn't really around last year so I'm not completely aware of what Killer did, but it sounds interesting enough at any rate.


Anonymous said...

QB (easy one, three) Kitna, Stanton, and "O".

RB (five) Smith, Bell, Calhoun, Felton, and Bradley

TE (four) Campbell, Gaines, FitzSimmons, and McHugh

WR (five) CJ, Roy, Furrey, McDonald, and Moore

OL (nine) Raiola, Backus, Mulitalo, Peterman, Foster, Ramirez, Davis, Scott, and Cherilus

Special teams (three) Hanson, Muhlbach, and Harris

DL (nine) Avril, White, 5-0, deVries, Fluellen, Darby, Redding, Moore, and Cody

LB (six) Gardner, Fincher, Sims, Dizon, Lenon, and Lewis

CB (five) Kelly, Bodden, Fisher, Wilson, Smith

S (four) Bullocks, Alexander, Smith, and Campbell

OUT RB's Cason, Pinner. TE's John Owens. WR's Ellis, Bellamy, Middleton. OL's Corey Hulsey. DL's Smith, Cohen. LB's Cannon, and Davis. CB's Robinson, Hicks, Edwards. S Pearson and Blue.

This obviously means Corey Smith and Anthony Cannon gets beat out. It also adds Pearson's legal troubles and Greg Blue's failure to learn how to cover better. That would be the only way for Caleb Campbell to make the roster. There is TOO much depth right now at linebacker.

Have fun with this. I know it isn't a perfect world, and this roster will change once injuries start in camp and preseason.


JJLions20 said...

I'm not sure how you can predict who will make the team before 9 of these kids play their first preseason game, or you can see some of the guys in a zone blocking scheme. But, I have a suggestion. Lets go ahead and make the predictions, and then create a bubble list. There will most likely be a list of 30 players that we can come to a consensus are safe. Then before each cut we get to supply a list of players from the bubble list that we think are safe and why. We do that prior to each cut. The winner is the person who had the least amount of their "safe" players cut. It may be easy for the first cut, but I'll bet there are some surprises. It will also be real interesting when that last cut happens.

Patrick said...

I think cohen and campbell will be on the practice squad. From what I have seen of Moore... he doesn't drop ANYTHING...passes, carries, kR and PR. Moore is our next E.Drummond without injuries or fumbles....Just my opinion.

Patrick said...

I think cohen and campbell will be on the practice squad. From what I have seen of Moore... he doesn't drop ANYTHING...passes, carries, kR and PR. Moore is our next E.Drummond without injuries or fumbles....Just my opinion.