Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Email Bag: Draft Day Trades?

Here are a couple more questions from the Email Bag. As I said, I'm answering them in bunches, but will really try to get to them all. The questions are in italics, and the answers are in regular type. Thanks for all the great questions -- and all the great comments!! Keep it up!!

Also, don't forget to get your mock in by clicking on the link to the right, and putting it in comments. Remember, you can do what you think the Lions will do, and what you would like them to do. We'll see how we all did after the draft!

Onto your questions:

This may be an unrealistic draft day trade scenario, but I wanted to run this by you and get your thoughts, on if it is something other teams may go for:

Trading the #1 overall:

- Lions negotiate with Curry, and get agreement in principle to #1 overall terms. Lions then start expressing their interest in Curry, tipping their hand
- Lions trade #1 overall with KC for #3 overall and KC 3rd round pick (I would settle for 4th round if needed). KC does not need a QB, and probably has Curry at the top of their board. Fearing the Lions will take Curry, coupled with a modest asking price, they make the swap
- With #3 overall, Lions talk to Denver, assuming that Denver has Stafford in their sights. Lions trade #3 overall to Denver for their #12 and a 3rd rounder.

Lions target BJ Raji at 12 and best LB avail at 20. Or, Lions target Maleuga at 12 and Piera at 20. Plus, they end up with an extra 3rd and extra 4th rounder, and escape the #1 overall pick price tag and expectations. ~~ Eric

Your scenario starts out semi-realistic. The possibility of KC wanting Curry and trading for #1 overall if the Lions have already negotiated a #3 value contract is possible, though there are a lot of moving parts. It would likey be for a 4th, as they already lost their 2nd in the Cassel trade and Pioli is of the Belechik school of "trade down, not up."

Where it loses steam is with Denver. Talking heads take a look at Orton+picks for Cutler and assume that Denver doesn't have a QB, thus will need to draft one high. There are several problems with that the silly mainstream media seems to ignore.

1. Josh McDaniels REALLY likes Kyle Orton and thinks that he can be the right type of QB to run his offense. (I tend to agree. He is pretty accurate, doesn't make a lot of mistakes, plays smart.)

2. Orton is a seasoned vet who has been to the Superbowl as a backup, and into the playoffs with the Bears. For the same reason the Bears wanted Cutler to spark their offense, Orton works for Denver in that McDaniels feels he fits his mold better than a "gunslinger" like Cutler.

3. McDaniels likes later round QB's. His QB's have been: Tom Brady and Matt Cassel. I needn't point out that neither was acquired anywhere close to Round 1 -- quite the opposite. McDaniels believes in skill set and mentality more than hype at QB.

4. There is a greater than 50% bust rate with first round QB's. As Don Banks points out, only 14 of 32 teams are starting QB's that they drafted in the first round. Considering how many are taken each year in round one, that is a horrible number...

Because of just those 4 factors, coupled with a weak overall QB class (as far as first rounders are concerned) with underclassmen having an even worse success rate than the overall first round QB"s, you will NOT see Denver trade up for an offensive player come draft day. I expect them to stand pat and take a couple of defensive play makers. Remember, the only Defense worse than Denver's last year? The Detroit Lions.

I like the idea that Detroit may be able to get out of the first overall, and would love to see them drop down up to 5 spots for a third rounder, up to 10 spots for a 2nd. We'll just have to wait and see, but I don't think it will happen.

What pick do you think the Lions will trade, and what will they get for it? ~~ PrinceLeo

The pick most likely to be traded is the #20 overall. At least a few players will "fall" to that point that teams who are a player or two away from a Superbowl run, or whom teams covet, will want.

If it is someone who picked in the top 10, they are likely to get either a 2 and 3 this year, or a 2 this year and next. Two #2's from one of the 2 or three teams that have two this year is also a possibility. Another scenario there would have the Lions getting a #2 this year and next for the pick. Finally, a team at the end of the round may give their late round first and this year's 2 for pick, or maybe a late 3rd depending on how many teams are "bidding" for the pick.

As you can see, there are a lot of options for trade at that spot. With the notoriously greedy Eagles picking after the Lions (they are known for only making lopsided trades heavily in their favor), teams will be more open to working with Mayhew as he has already shown with the Kitna, Redding, and Roy deals that he will be a firm but fair negotiator.


Anonymous said...

What do you think Backus would bring in a trade? That would allow the Lions to pick an LT high. They would still be lacking a guard, but I just don't think that Backus would want to move inside to guard, having been a starting LT since he was drafted high. As such, I suspect things could get ugly with him, what with all the losing the team has done since he got here, and then being "demoted" if you will, despite being "okay" at the position. Further, carrying two high priced LTs makes no sense. An extra pick or two (pending what Backus would command) may allow them to target a guard in the draft later. Don't get me wrong, I would prefer Curry, but I get the feeling he won't be the Lion's pick due to the Peterson trade. Any thoughts?

DetFan1979 said...

May be able to get a 3rd for him from a team that missed out on a LT early on or that wants a vet LT as part of a playoff run or as a stop-gap.

Can't think of any teams off hand that would be good trade partners though...

Anyone have any thoughts on that? The draft will dictate a lot of it, of course...

DetFan1979 said...

BTW - I think the wacked out rookie pay scales have more to do with why the Lions wouldn't pick Curry than the Peterson trade.

Anonymous said...


I think the 3.1 pick may also be a good trade option. It will be the first pick on Sunday after teams have had a change to reevaluate the draft and maybe pick up someone they like who dropped out of the second round. The Lions maybe able to swap 3rd round picks with another team and pick a later round one also. Maybe drop to 3.10 and pick up a fourth or fifth at least.

nubs said...

3.1 pick (HOT!) That's the Kevin Smith pick that the Lions used last year, correct? There will be some phone calls with that pick, guaranteed.

If Hutch were still in Seattle, I would say Backus and Steve were back together again. But the Lions wouldn't trade within the division. The Patriots have taken a few former Lions off our hands (Leigh Bodden and Gary Guyton)