Sunday, April 19, 2009

Curry Slipping Down - Or at #1?

It’s been odd to see the same people for two months who have said Aaron Curry is too expensive by far to go number one overall, they had him going 2, 3 or 4…which is still in the slots that put him at about 150% of the top LB pay…


Now, he is starting to “slide” in mocks into a range that puts him salary-wise as close to (if not the) top paid LB in the league. Don Banks has him going at #8 to the Jags. Lets also consider that Peters-LT Buffalo was traded to the Eagles for a 1st rounder plus a late rounder. That puts the Eagles out of the LT sweepstakes, but puts the Bills in real need of one – desperately so.

What could Detroit get for trading Backus to the Bills if Detroit goes OT at the top? I’m not sure… Jauron already has been exposed to Backus, and is familiar with him. If a 3rd rounder could be had, would it be worth it?

Another thought is this: If Curry is still there at pick 8 – do the Lions trade with the Jags say #20 and #82 this year to move up and take Curry? I know they need all the picks they can get – BUT – if you can get a guy you were considering at #1 overall, for #20 and #82 would you do it? Especially if the only reason you didn’t take him was the irrational pay-slotting of high-first round draft picks?

Would you go #20 and #65? If they went Stafford at one, this mock also suggests that Laurinitis or Rey will be there for the taking for the Jags at #20 if they are thinking LB… so you get Stafford at #1, Curry at #8, and looking at who that mock has falling into round two plenty of choices for the Lions at #33 – including trade back for a couple #2’s or an extra third. Maybe even a low-#1 next year and a #3 this year…

There should be top S and CB available in the latter half of 2 if they pick up 2 2nd’s from a team that’s got ‘em. Point is, they would still have options to get solid starting caliber players to continue helping the D.

If they go OT at #1, it makes it more likely to me as you could attempt to trade Backus to a top LT need team that loses out on the top 4 who would currently be better than Backus. Not only that, they trade up to get Curry, and then take a top CB or S at #33, and a run-stuffing DT with the 3rd.
You get: Upgrade on the O-line, Elite LB Corps, and a new starter for the Dline and Secondary.

Those are blocks you can build on. I know the Lions needs lots of bodies -- but they need them to be starters, and significant upgrades over what they already have. Ideally? As Killer pointed out, they should go Curry at 1, a DT at 20 and the top S if he's there at #33.

With Daunte looking like a rookie (as far as how in shape he is), and sounding just as exuberant -- at 32 he fits the trend of older QB's who had success in the past but for whatever reason were let go -- coming back and elevating their game and leading teams well into their 30's. IF Culpepper is following the trends set by Collins, Garcia, and Warner then he could be a solid starter to lead the LUCK (Lions Under Construction Kurrently) for a good 4 - 5 years.

So if it is Stafford or an OT -- do you trade up for Curry if the price is right and he slips, or get an extra body in the third?

What are your thoughts??

18 comments:

millersco said...

What a crazy business. After ranking players by talent and having Curry at the top for a long time, now let's change our minds and rank by salary instead of talent.Sponsors and agents all want the QB highest so they can make money. Who wants an MLB on Wheaties. Hope Mayhew sticks with the plan.

millersco said...

What a crazy business. After ranking players by talent and having Curry at the top for a long time, now let's change our minds and rank by salary instead of talent.Sponsors and agents all want the QB highest so they can make money. Who wants an MLB on Wheaties. Hope Mayhew sticks with the plan.

millersco said...

What a crazy business. After ranking players by talent and having Curry at the top for a long time, now let's change our minds and rank by salary instead of talent.Sponsors and agents all want the QB highest so they can make money. Who wants an MLB on Wheaties. Hope Mayhew sticks with the plan.

millersco said...

Oops sorry the blackberry was acting up

nubs said...

I told you so.

Mark said...

Just because a mock draft has some one dropping or rising does not mean it will happen. Last year in most mock drafts Mayo was a reach at #15 for the Lions but when the Patroits drafted him at 10 it was not a reach? How does that work? I say draft by needs or best player. If they got Curry at 8 or so I would be happy but, not if they draft Stafford #1. We can get a better QB next year draft or other wise. I'm not sold on the guy or any other guy that Kiper has love for.

LionWing19

DetFan1979 said...

Pats took mayo because at that slot, while he is one of the highest paid LB -- he wasn't double what Ray Lewis is getting.

7-10 is a sweet spot for the top LB -- same reason a top OG doesn't go early (besides that they are easier to find)

Not saying I want it to happen -- but Mocks from guys who take into account salary, etc. show him dropping a little.

The fact that no one really knows anything other than that Jason Smith, Aaron Curry and Matt Stafford's agents are who the Lions are negotiating with is a testament to how much different -- and competent -- this new front office is.

I still think Trade down is their #1 hope...

What I was trying to look at is IF they took Stafford...and IF Curry started to slide...

Do you trade up to get him? Is it worth it?

Anonymous said...

Agree. He is worth it but, I don't think you trade up do to the fact of the USC LB and or OSU LB (too lazy and late to look up name spelling) one will be their at #20 or later.

Sorry I did vent a little due the lack of respect for the Lions by the media. I do know they do deserve it a little bit but the millen is gone so give the benafit of the doubt a bit.

Can't wait for the draft. Go Lions

LionWing19

nubsnobber said...

Lionwn19

I really think everything the Lions are doing is funny. It's great to see that Schwartz likes playing the mind games. I can't wait to see how he (and his staff) play gridiron chess during the season.

And don't apologize for hating on Mel Kiper. We feel your pain. I hate the anti-Detroit negativism in the press and national media.

I still remember hearing a story of a writer in the national media writing how the Super Bowl in Detroit sucked because of the weather and it came to light from a staffer (from Detroit working in L.A.) afterward that the article was pre-written. Some people want a punchline regardless of the price.

We're 9 hours away from seeing our "New Kitty" and five days from meeting our new starting middle linebacker.

5Bakerstreet said...

The problem I have with with this "value" aspect for the pick is that its a generalized perspective, rather than a team specific perspective.

And I don't think this value thing should dictate whether or not someone should be picked based on team need.

And narrowing this team need to the Detroit Lions, they have a glaring need at MLB and defensive front 7 as a unit. So filling those needs seems more valuable to me than drafting someone for a lesser need of the team makes way more sense.

So any suggestion of not drafting Curry at 1 because a LB isn't worth that much has no resonance with me.

Draft Curry at one and don't risk the chance of missing out in any trade back up scenario, then move on to 20.

Don't get "cute" with that first pick. It was an 0-16 effort that got the pick, use it to the teams best advantage.

From 20 if Mayhew wants to begin juggling picks via trades whether to move down to get more picks or up to get a specific pick, then go for it.

Anonymous said...

Curry won't be there at #8. I don't see how he gets past #5 at the latest. So, I think the Lions should still take him at #1. Pass on Stafford and see how Culpepper does this year. I have a hard time spending the immense amount of money Stafford would get to hold a clipboard. I think the #20 pick is the mix to trade out of and get extra picks. If, for whatever reason, they don't pick Curry with #1, pick Laurinitis at #20 to work the middle. I just keep seeing a lot of parallels to my favourite past Lion, Chris Spielman.
Hosslions

Isphet said...

Packaging picks to move up a couple spots and get a guy the Lions have targeted in the draft... sounds vaguely familiar to me... Miller? Mack Miller? What was that guy's name again? I seem to have blocked it out of my mind...

The Lions have too many holes on their roster to combine picks; it's a luxury they can't afford to even consider. Doing business that way has always gotten them into trouble in the past.

I think we're all a little TOO married to Curry at this point. I like him too, but step back and get a little perspective. In my mind, he's worth a number one pick, but not multiple picks (therefore multiple players) unless the extra picks are way down in the 5th and 6th rounds.

The Lions are in a sad state and hoping that those third round picks they have will start. They probably will, too.

Ty said...

DF79--

Agree wholeheartedly. Everything I've seen, heard, and read indicates that Curry is a mortal lock for 1.3; McShay today said that if he's there and they pass that he'll be texting and calling everyone, saying it's a shocking mistake. So . . . if passing on Curry at 1.3 is lunacy, how can taking him at 1.1 be anything other than smart?

I am currently favoring Curry with the 1.1, then best value at CB, DT, or OG/OC for the next two picks.

Peace
Ty

Anonymous said...

Thanks Nubs.


LionWing19

DetFan1979 said...

I am, as you know, firmly on the Curry bandwagon personally -- becaue to me, the money would be worth it. But it has to be that way for the Lions as well.

I'm not a great judge of QB's (I always hoped Joey was turning the corner...)
so I openly admit I have no clue about Stafford.

I love the games Mayhew and Schwartz are playing, and they are doing so in a very skilled and subtle way.

I'm looking forward to Sunday's this coming season. At least the Lions won't be outwitted and out-talented.

Here's hoping they take Curry -- BUT -- No matter who they take I'm trusting that this front office has done their homework, and made the right call for the long term good of the team.

CHIEFGER139 said...

STAFFORD
is lookin like the pick, then probably laurintus and so on

millersco said...

By the way yes I would trade up in your senario and try to get curry. Right now we have no MLB and I don't know what other FA or trade options are available. Seems Rey is hurt and Laurentis isn't creating a lot of excitement.

nubs said...

Guys

Just a tip.

Go back in time to just after the Senior Bowls. Look at who was rated where and why.

The problem media gets into is the comparison of numbers. Once these small school guys run speed digits at their pro days, it pollutes the gene pool.

What you need to do is identify a target based on "Can he play football?" Criteria should be based on that.

I also think you will see Sanchez and Freeman getting kicked a few bones. Mark my words, Sanchez is higher-sought than most think. I'm not saying that because a few scouts see him creeping up charts. I looked at how Stafford, Freeman, and Sanchez played. Sanchez and Freeman BOTH look better to me than Stafford, and I said that a long time ago.