Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Guest Blog: Shack Attack

As usual with a primarily guest blog, my own comments will be [italics]. JJLions20 sent this to me this right after I publsihed the Harris article, and I thought it fit with the current discussions.

I've been just reading the posts for a while and not commenting too much, but now that the front office is in place the coaching staff is in place I've been listening to the talk shows and reading the papers and thought about what the Lions seriously need to do with the draft, and the best case scenario. So here are the thoughts, taking a segway from the article about James Harris' hiring.

Now that the Lions have the Personnel guy in place in maybe we should call the draft the Shack Attack. But now is the time to come up with….THE BEST CASE LIONS DRAFT SCENARIO:

With the NFL Combine starting this week and approximately 2 months until the draft, this is where all the mis-information and smoke starts (if it hasn't already). I posted a few weeks back what would be best opportunity for the Lions in the Draft. After listening to many sports talk show (and discarding much of the garbage), I've come up with a scenario that is the best and most likely [As of now].

The Lions need to trade down and pick up extra picks, yet still get the best defensive player on the board. In order for this to happen four things have to happen.

1. One player has to rise to the top of the board that is heads and shoulders above the others and destine to be a game changer.
2. There has to be a definitive gap between him and the next player in the draft at his position.
3. He has to be coveted by multiple teams.
4. The Lions have to be willing to take slightly less than market price (based upon the calculator all teams use). [See Magic 8-Ball piece from Monday for my thoughts on this]

I don't believe this will be Mathew Stafford, because when it comes down to it, Stafford did not do well enough in the big college games, and ultimately that will hurt him. The Guy the Lions have to hype and hope he separates himself in the draft is Michael Crabtree. Why? He's a big play guy, he has proven it in big games. He's a lot like CJ as he is the best can't miss prospect in the Draft. After all the hype the QB's will slip way down on the board. That leaves Crabtree, Smith (weight, character issues, and a host of OT's about the same talent level), and then the Defensive players. So If Crabtree can impress the scouts, it becomes a question of how high do you go to get him. A team could trade with the Rams, and then get out maneuvered when somebody else who wants him can deal with the Lions. The key is the Lions can't ask for a kings ransom, they don't need a Hersal Walker deal, they just need an additional fist day pick and maybe a 2nd day pick. [I'd go less than that -- 3rd round is second day, and I would take a top 10 3rd and 1st in a heartbeat for first overall.] If the goal is to improve your team then it's about getting the defensive player you targeted, and more picks, and more possibilities at improving.

The key team here is the Seahawks, who supposedly want Crabtree. What the Lions need to do is stir up enough interest that the Seahawk believe there is no way he slips to 4th so the only way to get him is to move up, and the only spot to guarantee it is the #1 spot. So let's say the Lions get KC's 1st and 2nd rounder. That may not be fair value for the 1st overall pick, but if they wanted that defensive player, wouldn't it be better drafting #4, getting the Defensive player and then still have picks #20, #33, #37, #65, #82. Now I'm not saying the best they could do is the #4 and #37 picks, but it would be enough for me to pull the trigger, because in the end it will make the Lions a better team (given good picks).

[I would take that deal, but without the the #37. Make it #4 and #68 for #1 overall. That is also doable. While getting their 1 and 2 is the best case scenario, getting their 1 and 3 would still be more than enough for me to jettison #1 overall. 3rd round is where good GM's make it or break it, and if the Lions draft well there they will improve. If they don't, it will be more mediocrity. That would still make for the Lions having picks #4, 20, 33, 65, 69, 82. Any GM and fan base should be beyond thrilled with that. One step further would be to parlay #20 to a team looking to move back into the first for an additional 2nd and 3rd. Based on last year, that is also a distinct possiblity. Having pick 33 already, imagine giving up 20 for 47 and 79? Then it would be 4, 33, 47, 65, 69, 79, 82? You could realistically be looking at 6 solid starters, possibly 7 with those picks. Wouldn't that be something?? The IFseason has truly begun...]

[Despite the combine, IMO draftniks make huge changes to the board based on the combine. Teams? Not as much upward movement. Some guys may screw up and drop out of contention/downward on the board (think of in Excel, you delete a cell, and move the rest up. One goes down 12 spots, everyone in between where they start, and where they end up gets bumped up one by default.) Get enough downward movers, and that is where players "moving up the boards" comes from. So look for me to focus more on the roster, posssible FA, and FA strategy and assessments for a while, moving more to a draft focus as we get more into the middle to end of March. Depending on how exciting FA is, of course!]

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

jj
Good thoughts, and I agree that Crabtree should get hyped in the coming weeks. Shit, with the Lions not having a #2 receiver, maybe they could draft....just kidding.

The things I love to look at are regular season games or tournament chapionships-not bowl games. Combines are nice, but Brian Robison (OU /Minnesota Vikings) should have been the next Mark Gastineau according to his combine results. Look back at how these kids play in big games that AREN'T bowl games. Remember, there are some teams that have a month or more off between the last regular season game and the New Year's annual. Offensive players especially have problems with timing with a big layoff, and that's something I always try keeping in mind when looking at these kids.

Another helpful hint. If you youtube (which I do from time to time, it's definately the Cliff notes version of what these guys are like. So pull up the kids' college football schedule. Then look if Graham Harrell just threw that bomb against a class opponent, or the first-game cupcake on the schedule. Is it a gut-wrenching performance after a sustained injury, or after a BYE week against an inferior league doormat. I always love watching games if I have time.

We'll see how the attack goes with the Shack. Any thoughts that he takes a QB out of West Virginia (Pat White), (ala) Matt Jones from Arkansas. He would be a good receiver, kick-returner option later on, and the guy has moxy. It'll be interesting to see where White goes; I've heard many scouts rave about his coachability and "IT" factor. He is definately the square peg/round hole.
-nubsnobber

CHIEFGER139 said...

personelly
the trade down scenerio is only a pipe dream-unlike the nba-the nfl number one pick most years is like being stuck with the plague-no one wants it and no one wants to pay the high dollars your stuck paying-much better to be in the 3-5 slot so i think were stuck with number one pick-one good thing scout.com has curry at number 2 so i think mayhew could save face and get him evn though many say dont take a lb with the 1st pick-
then a more likely scenerio-trade up with our #19 pick and get into the 10-12 position-millen was good at this and mayhew should be too-so we give up our 2nd or 3rd pick to do this-but then your still right in there where the defensive guys we want are-nail one of them too-and you get at least two solid starters this year and who knows maybe somemore mediocre starters later-i kind of hope this is what they do

RIP said...

Reading Mayhew's bio and some of the moves that he has made is bringing a idea of what type players he is looking for, and who to keep around.

First, Mr. Mayhew was a hard working, and loyal player in his playing days. He was most always on the opposite side of very good shut down corners. He was also viewed to be small for a corner. Now I did not watch the Redskins play, but can imagine most teams tried to work his side of the field. He worked at his game so he could be the starter, as well as win as a team. No complaints, just doing his job to be the best he could be.

That being said, I look back onto the past moves by our team and wondered how much influence he had towards these decisions.

First to come to mind was Dre Bly. Did not like the way he was used on defense. Gone. Then there Shaun Rodgers, I talk to the media through my defensive line teammates. He would also work at his game on the teams time. Gone. Roy Williams and Leigh Bodden had spoke bad of how they were used (type offense and defense) to the media. Gone. Jon Kitna's situation? With the restructuring of Dante's contract, it seems obvious he is there choice between the two. Dante showed good leadership, while Jon complained to coaches, teammates, media, and who ever else would listen. Gone?

Riola and Backus are thought of in high regards by management. They are the opposite of the previous players mentioned. One reason that they resigned Peterman may have been that he have showed nothing but dedication and improvement since he has been here. This may also be a good sign for Lenon to be resigned.

Saw a couple interesting reads today. Tom mentioned a free agent LB on MLIVE.

http://www.mlive.com/lions/index.ssf/2009/02/
leroy_hill_is_an_intriguing_bu.html

With Dizon's size and college production, I am wondering if he could be the nest LeRoy Hill if given the opportunity.

Also came across a mock draft scenario that makes the most scents to me.

http://profootball.scout.com/2/839583.html

What do you guys think.

DetroitSims said...

I am in totally agree with you guys on this!! I would love to see them get a good value for the #1 pick. It seems like they could get more for it but, its hard enough to find someone even remotely interested in takin the pick. I like the ides of getting the teams first and second, that seems like a good way to go as far as value!

I just dont see how they could use the #1 pick on Stafford. I havent been real high on him from the get go. I watched a few games of him this past season and like someone else pointed out in the last article, he had some moments where he would light it up. I guess part of me worries that they will draft him and he turns into the next Joey!! We dont need to go through that again thats for sure!!!! I think you can all agree with me on that. I am not saying his is the next Joey but, I would hate to see ANOTHER high draft pick wasted when we have guys on the roster right now that can get the job done for now. I would really like to see something happen with DanO. I liked the fact that he managed the games pretty well last year and he kept us in most of them. I kinda understand why they kept Culpepper,(Glad they re-did his contract) the whole veteran presence is nice. Give him a shot to compete for the starters job. I dont know how i would feel about him being the starter. He better be in good shape thats for sure. He looked like CRAP last year except for a few good thrown balls to CJ.

I did kinda look over all the guys that are free agents on espn.com. There a quite a few guys out there that I really think the Lions could look into. Anybody has got to be better than all these back up players we have!! Here are ome Defensive guys that jumped out at me that I thought maybe the team could look into:

LB'S- Michael Boley, Channing Crowder, Karlos Dansby, Bart Scott

DT'S- Tank Johnson, Colin Cole, Dwayne Robertson, Kenderick Allen

CB'S- Nnamdi Asomugha, Phillip Buchanon, Drayton Florence, Domonique Foxworth, Jabari Greer, Bryant McFadden, Keiwan Ratliff

DE'S- Chris Canty, Jerome McDougle, Igor Olshansky, Kenechi Udeze, Jason Babin, Antonio Smith

I know I could sit here all day and put names down for everyone. I named a few of the bigger names and a few that I actually had to look up. I mean for the right price, maybe we could get a couple of the bigger name guys to come in here. I am not sayin we have to sign them all to long contracts or anything. It would be nice to upgrade some of or weaker positions with some experience players instead of rookies!! The CB'S and DT'S I think are a big spot we need to look into through FA. Any thoughts on that??? Anyone I left out that you guys think are more important or that I missed??