First off, Philadelphia is trading Donovan McNabb to Washington as per Adam Schefter. This makes trading out of #2 spot highly unlikely at this point, as Tom Kowalski deftly explains. These developments put us back to looking over BATFAN prospects for #2 overall.
Rubicon of the Mlive Forums directed me to a great “Pop Quiz” he saw that I thought it would be fun to share. I’ll post up the “answer” after the analysis.
Q: Which Player is the Best?
1: 98 Tkl, 23.5 TFL, 9.5 Sk, 20 QBH, 5 PBU, 0 Int, 1 FF, 3 Blk
2: 112 Tkl, 33 TFL, 14 Sk, 48 QBH, 5 PBU, 0 Int, 1 FF, 0 Blk
3: 116 Tkl, 25.5 TFL, 15.5 Sk, 10 QBH, 7 PBU, 0 Int, 2 FF, 0 Blk
4: 82 Tkl, 23 TFL, 12 Sk, 24 QBH, 10 PBU, 1 Int, 1 FF, 3 Blk
Stats in and of themselves are just numbers. Often times, teams out-smart themselves with stats analysis. Depending on the time frame, situationals, etc. you can break down stats any number of ways. For instance, how many of the QBH (Quarterback Hits) and Sk (Sacks) were in 3rd and long situations where the defensive team held a big lead? This means the QB holds the ball longer trying to get it down-field in an obvious passing situation, making it easier to register either defensive play.
While that type of analysis can be useful, as Lions fans know not all defensive players have the ability to make that play, even with increased likelihood of success. The big play may happen instead. Can they do it consistently? Can they make the hits/sacks when there is a 2nd and short passing situation?
Another thing about stats is what they don’t tell you. Who were the teammates? What role was each player asked to do within their scheme? Much of the musing about picks is backed up with stats. This is a double edged sword — breaking down stats too far is to take it to the level of the absurd, and overlook the human aspect. So, which stat do you think would deserve #2 overall money? How many picked option #2?
Answer: Trick question. They weren’t all individual players…
#1 = Alabama DL
#2 = Florida DL
#3 = Texas DL
#4 = Ndamukong Suh. By himself
Stats in a vacuum are interesting, but must be taken as part of the whole, not the entirety. At this point, I would have to say I feel that Mr. Suh is the favorite to go to Detroit #2 overall, and that it is the second pick of round two that moves in the spot “most likely to be traded”. There are still three weeks to the draft, and a lot can happen…