Sunday, October 31, 2010

Lions Congregation: Of Peterman and Wins

Lions Congregation: Of Peterman and Wins


This week, the Lions Congregation gathers in the shadows of Ford Field to look over your questions once again.  Stephen Peterman and expectations for wins are on the docket today.
The Panel:
From Najacks00: Has Stephen Peterman’s foot injury been more serious than we’ve been told? It seems he’s getting pushed around more this year than in the past. If that’s the case will he get healthy during the bye? Will that help the run game get going?
Al: We wouldn’t know either way about Peterman’s foot issue, as the Lions hold injury information tighter to their chest than a too small vest is on a fat man. But you’re right, Peterman has not played well, or for that matter, smart. He has committed some of the dumbest, most costly penalties on the Lions’ roster. Let’s hope the bye has allowed Peterman to both freshen up health-wise, and push a reset button on his season.
But it’s more than just a struggling Peterman holding the running game back. Matthew Stafford’s shoulder injury, Jahvid Best battling turf toe, Kevin Smith not being fully recovered from his ACL injury, and the Lions playing from behind far too often, have all played a big part in stifling the rushing attack.
But there is a stat line that should give you hope. Best has 31 catches for 231 yards, almost all on quick, short routes coming out of the backfield. Most of those catches could be considered long handoffs, a way to get Best the ball in space.
But I think the bye week will do wonders for the Lions running game. Stafford will be back, not allowing defenses to key as much on Best. Best should be that much healthier, as will Kevin Smith. And most importantly, the schedule gets far easier.
It all adds up to a more effective running game in the final ten games…health and scheme willing.
Steve: I don’t believe that you can honestly assess the play of an individual offensive line player, outside of the production of the unit as a whole. Before taking a closer look at Peterman, let’s look at some of the team’s stats.
The Lions offensive line has allowed only 11 sacks in eight games. The Lions are also averaging 24.3 pts/gm, which ranks them 11th in the league. These stats would seem to be indicate that the Lions offensive line has performed respectably.
That being said, the Lions are only averaging 3.5 yds/carry and are averaging 79 yards rushing/gm, which ranks them 31st in the league. This is not so good.
The Lions offensive line has been the source of debate for several years now. The play of Jeff Backus and Gosder Cherilus, and the absence of a dependable left guard (prior to Rob Sims) have all stirred up alot of debate among the Lions fan base. In the past, Peterman had been regarded as one of the more dependable players along the Lions offensive line.
This season, Peterman’s injury has definitely limited him, effecting his play. We have no way of knowing exactly the severity of the injury.
Ultimately, if the Lions are going to eventually experience any post-bye week success, they will have to be able run with the ball much better than they have thus far and they will have to be able to protect Matthew Stafford. Until further notice, Peterman will play a large part in this potential success. Hopefully, the bye week has helped Peterman to recover to near full strength.
Zac: With the way the Lions closely guard all injury information it is impossible to know just how much Stephen Peterman’s foot might be affecting him now. We could single out Peterman but I don’t know if it is really warranted. Each member of the offensive line has had his good and bad moments. They will have to perform more consistently as a unit to help out the running game.
Michael: Peterman may still be hampered by some soreness, but the team wouldn’t have him out there (nor would he want to be out there) if it were that serious. Peterman was underrated when no one was talking about him, now that everyone expects something…he is overrated! Outside of the penalties (which is a mental, not a physical error) Peterman has been pretty much the same player he’s always been. Hopefully, moving forward, his communication with Cherilus and Raiola will improve and the Lions will feel more comfortable to that side. The most important factor though is removing those penalties!
NetRat: Najacks00, Peterman probably needs another off season to fully heal. I too think it’s more serious then they let on but he’s still playing better then the backups (so far). Of course, he had a year off so he’s rusty… and this system was installed last year when he went out so he hasn’t much experience in it…. and I don’t think that the run game is that far off from what they want, they are after speed more then power after all. It’s the short yardage stuff they have no answer for and that’s because Raiola is not a short yardage center, never has been. Right now I’d say that Best’s two turf toes (one per foot) is more of a problem for the run game then Peterman.
DetFan1979: Information Security in Allen Park during the Millen years was looser than the slots at a Casino grand opening. Mayhew holds information tighter than Batman’s underoos. So as far as inside information I’m not going there. However, just watching him play it’s been clear that he isn’t up to the dominating form we were seeing last season before he went out injured. Rob Sims has looked pretty good though.
Overall, I would say the weaker arm of Shaun Hill and the two turf toes suffered by Best combined with Kevin Smith not being at 100% has also had a major impact. The Lions have picked up more 3rd and short than they have in the past by far. Could they get better? They will have to. I think Peterman and Best both will need a full ifseason to fully heal (along with others like Levy and Delmas) but that after some rest up on the bye week will look a lot better against Washington than they have been the last couple of weeks.
From DesertLion85: Assuming the Lions can stay healthy, what is a reasonable expectation of second half wins – especially since with Romo out Dallas looks beatable with Kitna under center. Is 5-5 too much to expect?
Al: It’s not too much to expect, nor is it unreasonable. But it definitely is on the high side of expectations. Don’t lose hope though, as there are a few things in the Lions’ favor that might get them those five victories.
1. The back end of the schedule eases up considerably, as it was front-loaded with road games and better teams.
2. The Lions have six home games in their ten game closing stretch.
3. Not that the home games are against cupcakes, but the Lions do tend to play much better at Ford Field than on the road (DUH!).
4. The NFC Central has turned out to not be nearly as good as was first thought.
5. Best of all for the Lions’ chances, they have already played all their divisional road games.
But if the Lions are going to win five more games from here on out, they must win a game on the road. As their next two road matchups are against the winless Bills and the one win Cowboys, the time has come for the Lions to end their NFL record road losing streak.
So five wins is not out of the question. But…there’s always a “but” with this franchise…until the Lions prove they can win the occasional road game, I wouldn’t count on it.
Five victories is best case scenario, and how often do the Lions have a best case scenario? Now three wins? That I can get behind.
Zac: Is a 5-5 finish too much to expect? Yes. Is 5-5 possible? Also yes. I agree with those that say the Lions need to start winning games to show that they truly are making progress. The total number isn’t as important to me as they way they get them. I would love to see the Lions win a game on the road, a low scoring game, and a game against a superior opponent. If that makes for only three more wins the so be it.
Steve: The Lions NEED to win 4-5 games in their next 10, to demonstrate that their organization is definitely moving forward. They have played just well enough to lose in their first six games, which even if it provides hopeful optimism, is not good enough in a results-oriented business.
Of their 10 remaining games, eight of them appear to be nominally winnable. Their home game, this Sunday, against Washington would appear to be pivotal, since starting with a home win could springboard them into some success.
After a tough home game against the Jets, the Lions will go on the road to face the Cowboys and Bills, two teams that the Lions should have a legitimate chance of beating, despite a 24-game road losing streak.
After the two consecutive road games, the Lions come home for Thanksgiving to play New England. In their last five games, they play all of their divisional foes at home and play two warm weather games in Florida, against Tampa Bay and Miami.
Other than the Jets and New England, which are home games, all of the Lions remaining games should be close, especially considering their performance in their first six games.
Let’s say they begin 3-1 in their first four games after the bye, making their record 4-6 going into their annual Thanksgiving game. This would likely place them improbably in playoff contention within the topsy turvy NFL North. The season then begins to take on a whole new and different appearance from that point forward.
That being said, this is the Lions and they have yet to establish that they can actually win in any close game this season. It will require them taking some awfully big steps forward in order for the Lions to win four or five games after the break, but ones that are necessary to take, if they are ever going to emerge from the NFL basement.
Michael: With such hard road schedule in the first half and a much more manageable schedule (and a healthy team) going into the second half, 5-5 isn’t “too much” to expect but it might be a little lofty. Dallas and Washington are beatable and the Lions SHOULD be able to take 2 out of 3 home games from the NFC North teams coming to Ford Field. Then again, home field doesn’t mean much when Ford Field is empty! If the Lions get 4 more wins over the rest of the season, fans shouldn’t be too concerned, this is still a rebuilding team.
NetRat: DesertLion85, the Lions are not automatically out of any game remaining on the schedule. Sure they’ll have to not hurt themselves to win, but they can do that if they remain focused. Whether or not they can remain focused and in which games is the question. Sometimes it’s easier to remain focuses when you play a harder to beat team… sometimes. Health will also play a huge role in wins, both for the Lions and for the opponent. I remain in the opinion that the youth on the team are in a “learn as you play” mode and will get better as the season goes on… as well as make errors in which to learn from as they go on… so my best estimate right now is 4 to 6 more wins this year.
DetFan1979: The Lions have been competitive all along, and I expect them to keep that up.  They have a fairly favorable schedule going forward.  While 5 wins could easily be possible if the team stays healthy and plays smart, I think at least 3 more should be expected.
Have a question or topic for the panel?  email lionscongregation@yahoo.com
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