Monday, March 17, 2008

thoughts on your comments...

I have been horrible about commenting on your comments - my apologies. I do read them as they float in during the day, but usually don't have time to respond. (They come to my work email, so they are a nice quick break during the day between appointments.)

First of all, I am glad that pretty much all of you realized that my last post was not what I would do, but a scenario I can see the Lions doing and why, based on what we know their opinions of their current personnel are. Most "mocks" are a mockery - to logic and thought. Especially on fan sites who seem to think the other 31 teams are Morons (which, unless you are a Raiders fan right now, is at least 1/31 correct.)

After reading your comments, developments around the league, etc. -- I thought I'd update a few things. First of all, despite the somewhat negative scouting reports (thanks to whoever posted those - very helpful) I still think a player like Benedict is who the Lions will target in round 3. While it may not be him, it will be a player like him. someone who has the ability to compete for the RT position, but could be a possibility for LT. If not, they target one next year to upgrade over Backus.

Also, remember I assumed Williams and Mendenhall were both gone. Should Williams be there, I would not be against the Lions taking him. HOWEVER -- I think (personally) that DT Balmer and Lofton are two player the Lions want. Balmer will be gone before the end of round 1. If Mendenhall or Williams is there at 15, I think the Lions will be able to find a trade partner.

Trading into the 2nd with their #2 3rd and 5th is a possibility, as well as getting back into the 3rd by packaging their 4th and a 6th.

I was also looking at the latest statements coming out fo the Allen Park Asylum, and think I may have been wrong about the Oline -- the Lions may not even target it until round 4+ again...
I talked before about how they feel the current line can start. I think they also want a season to see how the current line performs when they are not always defending 7-step drops so they can tell where the real strengths and weaknesses are, and what type of O-lineman they need -- and what position(s). Again, just what I'm projecting the Lions may do.

I can see DT, MLB, OLB, RB as their top concerns. They could do this:

1. Balmer DT
2. Lofton MLB
3. RB (forte, rice et al)
3. Woodley OLB


I have seen on recent mocks that with Stewart out of the picture, Rivers has actually been falling toward the end of round one, possibly into the beginning of round 2. So what if the Lions can trade back to say, 22 with Dallas for the 22nd and 3rd. Package the 2nd and 4th to get into the 26-28th pick, then package the second 3rd and a 5th to get a 2nd 2nd again.

1. Balmer DT
1. Rivers OLB
2. Lofton MLB
2. RB (Johnson?)
3. CB

Now I'm dreaming, but even though it lacks an additional O-Lineman, that draft would put the Defense on one heck of a solid footing, as well as filling the need at RB. And those trades are realistic -- think of the Roy W. -KJ year. Millen started that year with only one pick each round, and there is little hope of trading out of the top 5. He still got two ones without giving up future picks, or his 2nd rounder.

Draft scenarios can be fun, but it is still all speculation.

As for the supposed 10 mil in cap space, did anyone else notice at least two of their FA signed the same day the Lions released Kennedy, Kalimba and Jones? Now, I said last week I wasn't sure where they were getting all the cap space from to sign those guys (even though it wasn't a large amount.) Now I think we know. I wouldn't plan on spending that 10 mil yet.

I don think they want to have space to bring in guys that are june 1 cap cuts. While there have been a few years of slim-pickings in that market, there are a few guys who will be formerly too high-priced for their current team (such as KJ) out there on the market to be had this off season. I think June 1 is getting to be a better time because of the stupidly huge contracts being given to mediocre guys who don't turn into above average players, just stay average players with fatter wallets.

Good quote I like to see:
The Detroit News, March 17: "None, zero – he is here," Marinelli said when asked about the possibility of trading Williams.
Marinelli expects Williams and Calvin Johnson, the Lions' first-round pick last year, to be one of the league's best receiving tandems.
"I think of them being elite players in the league," Marinelli said. "I see those two guys taking off."

In the past few years, it seems like the Lions (and their fans) figured everyone under contract who was any good would leave Detroit. This sends me the message that Rod is serious about winning, and knows that other teams have managed to keep two top receivers on their Roster, and that the Lions can too. If they progress like I'm thinking and have a shot at the playoffs, they will not only want to keep Roy, he will be more inclined to stay.

I hope they at least start negotiating with him soon, even if they don't get the deal done til later into the season, just so he knows they care and so that he is still contract-year motivated.

I did see the ridiculous article indicating over "20 teams" interested in KJ. I have posted my opinion on Mlive, but will briefly do so here: 20 teams may look at him...for the Veteran minimum. Oh, maybe a few voidable (by the club) years thrown in, with lots of playing time incentives that will never be earned, or -- if he looks like he is recovering well, will be renegotiated. Basically, a contract that pays KJ the minimum unless he fully recovers and becomes the back he showed flashes of in Detroit in the half dozen or so games he played in uninjured. Period. Numbers do not mean dollars. There will be no "bidding war" for his services. Obviously, the Lions looked at what he would produce, knew he would be at the end of his contract next year, what he was costing and made the right call for once regardless of where he was drafted. It's about the team now, not the draft in the past.

I also agree with nobsnubber who indicated (I think rightly so) that they used KJ on the roster to drive down Bell's price, even though they knew they would be cutting KJ in a day or two. For once, they bargained to their advantage, and then dropped him.

At 2.4 mil a year and not being able to pass a physical -- no team was trading for him. Not even a 7th.

I'm not surprised they couldn't trade Kalimba, but I was a bit taken they didn't try to peddle Kennedy. My guess is they did and there were no takers, and not enough interest to warrant keeping him til draft day. Millen has done well with draft day trades, and getting picks for marginal players -- so if there was anything to be gotten, I do actually think the Lions would have done it rather than get nothing in return.

Well, This post was kind of all over, and I'm not sure how many of your comments I really hit. I'm still a bit tired (as I'm sure you can tell.)

Lots of good thoughts on possible players to fill holes on the Lions for their draft slots, so I have been re-reading those. Good thoughts on Marinelli and his approach and personality. Think I'll write a bit more about "the plan" sometime this week. As soon as my super-secret Lionel from Allen Park arrives with the documents...(I'm not an "insider" - that was purely a joke, just like this Blog is purely fact-based logical speculation. Something I am told is being introduced into Allen Park with varying degrees of success by this guy named Rod...)

6 comments:

Mark in AZ said...

I been a Millen basher as of late but you bring up some good points and they make me think a little differently now. Millen has done a great job of moving up and down the boards and getting picks and players. What I see the Lions have had 3 different coaches in the last 7 years right? Now we all know that the offense was west coast from Moringweg and Mooch than the Marinelli/Martz greatest show era now we are in the next phase of the offense pound the rock with down field pass. The defense was what under Moringweg and Mooch to the Tampa 2 under Marinelli. So of course the players pick the first 5 years do not fit either system we have now or the coach the same goes for the free agents we picked up under Mooch they just don’t fit. So the drafts in the past have been made up of other systems and for very different coaches. Both Moring and Mooch were offenseive coaches and Marinelli is a defense of coach. I bet that Mooch had say in to who was picked in the drafts along with the Fords and Millen. So you would think that Marinelli has more say in who is picked in the draft than previous coaches. I see the Lions trading down and picking up more picks and moving around the draft board to get the players Marinelli wants. Keep up the good work. PS your girls are cute my daughter would not wear pink she like the blue sweater. Lionwing2019.

Anonymous said...

Morning Men

For a recap, the whole Choo-choo train scenario and comments come from a former poster on mlive.com named "dearborn". This poster had a very quick wit and was very funny. He would leave three and four paragraph postings about daily "events" or "happenings" around Allen Park that were plot spoofs off of tv shows or movies.

Where he went, we don't know. But his humor is sorely missed.

I keep tossing out the fact that OT may not be a drafted position.

How about RB?
The Duece McAllister rumor has flared its head. And although it would be unlikely Marinelli wouldn't want to take chances on another injured/recovering back, Duece is bigger and more durable than KJ is, and New Orleans is on the other side of the cash flow issue (have signed some big money free agents-close to cap).

Duece has shown he can consistently crack the 1000 yard barrier, and seems to fit better with what Coletto seems to want to accomplish.

Not drafting a running back would be part of this plan. Waiting to see if Duece is a June 1st cap cut is the second part. The third part is keeping the price down and not get in a bidding war with a third team.

The old saying "One man's garbage is another man's treasure."

What happens if Chicago snags Mendenhall? That means the Lions can draft OT Williams AND will probably see Cedric Benson on the free agent market come June 1st.

Here would be a former #1, a BIG man that would fit Coletto's sceme, and have a TON of motivation at least twice a year to go out and chap another's team ass.

Scenarios will keep unfolding all spring, but I think Marinelli is sticking with a game plan to inject youth and high energy guys throughout the lineup. That is why the Lions are staying away from Ian Gold and others so far. It seems scouting is actually sifting through the b.s. surrounding most of these guys.

Mark in AZ

The one thing you do have to give Millen credit for...he gets what his coaches want. He tries to sign and retain players that know their "systems". Having to switch and re-tool every couple of years does leave the roster in shambles, and his straight-line thinking with Marinelli really helps the present situation.

Let's see what this draft holds.

Anonymous said...

--nobsnubber

Anonymous said...

nobsnubber,
I live in the downtown Chicago area and I can tell you that I want the Lions to stay far FAR away from Cedric Benson. He's the equivalent of a Kalimba Edwards, except even worse in that Benson was a 1st round pick (#4 overall I think?) instead.
You're right, he has all the physical tools for a great running back, a great college resume, so where's the problem? I have no idea. He hardly ever breaks tackles that he should, he shows serious lack of motivation and enthusiasm, and overall he is a guy I do NOT want to see in my Honolulu Blue.
It's shocking how similar typical Chicago fans sound to typical Detroit fans (Joey is the reason we suck! v. Rex is the reason we suck!) They can't wait to grab their torches and pitchforks and chase the newest guy out of town. Then when finally replacing him and not seeing any improvement, it's time to grab the pitchforks again and pick a new "monster".
The Lions have Tatum Bell, let's not blow money on an aging free-agent when talent can be easily (and cheaply) found in the later rounds of the draft. I believe Rice will be available in the later rounds, and not a bad pick for the Lions. He gives you a more straight-ahead, brusiing running-style than Tatum and can be an effect "change of pace" back. Also, the Lions have a poor history in getting aging veteran players out of New Orleans (Roaf for Pat Swilling anyone?).

jreffy said...

^^ = jreffy

jreffy said...

^^ = jreffy