Poll Results: Lions Earn solid B+

Below are the totally unscientific and pointless "immediate gut grade" for the 2008 draft. The overwhelming majority had the Lions, as you can see, in the A-/B+ or B category -- hence the B+. I will take a look back on this as these players develop, and add to this poll again later on.

Thanks for voting!


A+ 2 (1%)

A 3 (2%)

A-/B+ 37 (34%)

B 49 (45%)

B-/C+ 9 (8%)

C 7 (6%)

C-/D+ 0 (0%)
Fail 0 (0%)

Chicago has new Forte?

Based on production in the past 3 seasons (if you can call it that) and his recent run in with the law, it looks more and more as though Matt Fotre will be the RB that Detroit will face from Chicago this year. With an improved line adding youth in Williams, a player the Lions liked, and their Defense healthy -- Chicago could be more trouble for the Lions than they were in their SB hangover year last season. Thankfully, they still have Rex Grossman and Kyle Ortman as their QB's. Where, and for a second there I was worried. And lets see...who is Chicago throwing to again? Marty Who? Booker? He's not retired?

In all seriousness, my Boss-Man (the huge Chicago Bears Fan) was happy with all but one point of the Bears' draft: No QB. There were some good QB's there in the 4th even that they could have taken a flier on. He was okay with Williams and Forte, although he thinks that they took him a bit high in the 2nd and could have used more youth to inject into the D...or a WR who can run and catch.

Still, looks as though the NFC North will be one tough division next season. Thank goodness that Lions have the best QB in the division. Unless you'd rather have Rodgers, Grossman or Jackson under center? Yeah. Stanton will actually learn from the bench as the number 2 this season and make some in game appearances if the Lions can rack up a lead for a change and are running out the clock.

Your thoughts on the Bears' draft and off season thus far?? Nobsnubber had some good eval on an earlier blog, but I can't remember which one. I'm sure you've all read all the comments and can locate...or maybe he'll be nice and re-post it here.

Draft Recap/Eval, Part 1: The GM

I know all of you are familiar with how long I think it is before a draft can be fully evaluated. However, as I outlined in March, there are a couple of methods that I will use immediately following the draft to see how A. The Lions did getting guys based on "projection" and "potential" (two words that end up wrong 50% of the time.) and B. How the GM did running the draft.



In Part 1, I am going to address the GM. Part 2 will address rounds 1-2. Part 3 will address rounds 3-7. Part 4 will be my final overview of the big picture.



After that, it will be on to the off season and information from mini-camps, off season moves, and new position evaluations as the players/situations change.

Before the draft, I mentioned that Matt Millen has an uncanny ability to move up and down the draft board to get the players the Lions are targeting, within reason. Many times, he can get a team to engage in a trade that really makes the most sense for the Lions...and not really for the other team. For instance, when the Browns wanted Kellen Winslow Jr and the Lions got an extra pick to flip-flop with them -- when the Lions got Roy Williams, who they wanted all along.

Draft weekend saw Millen have another strong draft -- not in terms of players, but in terms of his movement on the draft board. (which is what I am evaluating him based on tonight) Mayo and Harvey were the top two guys the Lions had targeted -- funny enough, although the talk leading up to the draft had Mayo as a "reach" for the Lions, both he and Harvey were gone at 10. In our Jax scenario, we had Jax trading the farm to get Harvey -- which was correct --- what I didn't anticipate was just how badly they wanted him, and just how likely they must have thought Detroit, the "other" team in top contention for him, would be willing go. If it was Detroit they were worried about taking him, then they were really off-base, in my opinion. Detroit wasn't going to trade up from 15.

What I like about what Millen did is reports indicate when their guys were gone at 10, they looked at the board and figured guy #3a, Williams OT, would also be gone by their pick. So the worked out the basics of the trade with KC, and then when Albert was there, they pulled the trigger to trade down two spots in exchange for an extra 5th, and moving up 10 spots in round 3. What I like here is that Alberts, G and Cherilous OT were both on the board at 15, and Detroit knew Ariz was going DRC. Really, it was a matter of knowing if the Chiefs were going to go for their guy -- or conversely, convincing the chiefs that Albert was who the Lions were leaning towards taking -- and he is the player that KC coveted. Millen got to move two spots -- it was conservative enough to ensure he got the guy they were targeting - Cherilus - but also a good enough deal to improve their position for day 2 of the draft, and give him some more ammunition. The top of 3 is the best place to be to snag the guy you wanted in 2 who slips a bit.

In round 2, there was a lot less action than I anticipated. I will say that I blame this partially on the fact that two teams traded out of round one entirely for multiple 2nd rounders, and they wanted to use those picks. Also, with multiple teams actually looking to move up this year, the market dictated that the price was pretty high. Both Carolina and Atlanta had to give up some valuable picks to get back into round one and snag their OT's before the top players were all gone. Atlanta ended up giving up 2 2nds to move up for Baker -- who was originally projected to be taken by them with one of those #2's -- but they knew Houston, who traded to the 20's earlier, was waiting to snag a lineman. Originally the Texans expected, based on projections, that they would have either Cherilus or Baker there for them at 26...but it turns out, both were gone already, and they ended up taking Brown -- the last of the 2nd round rated OTs!

My point with all of that, is that in rounds 1 and 2, I liked Millen's small move back to improve their position both on day 2 picks/location, and to be sure they got their targeted O-Lineman with their top D prospects long gone, and knowing that with a run on OT in the 1st there would be little/no help to be had there in 2.

Then came the break before round 3 and day 2. I think that, with the position the Lions were in, and the players they were targeting, round 3 being moved to Day 2 benefited them far more than any other team. I agree with them engineering the trade with Miami (giving up a 6th rounder) to move up to the top of the round and snag Smith. This trade costing as little as it did is totally reliant upon the day one trade back -- Parcells and Irish were looking to pick up draft picks wherever they could, but didn't want to slide back more than a couple of picks in 3. I read several places, especially on Rams blogs, that St.Louis was fielding offers from team wanting to move up for Smith if Miami didn't take him, and that Miami fielded a half dozen offers for their spot. In the end, the Lions won because Miami only moved down two spots, picked up a 6th, and the Lions weren't targeting a player they wanted. It is great how Millen's earlier maneuvering downward paid off in allowing him to cheaply move up in 3.

His next 3rd round move is a little more controversial, and really is what keeps me from saying this was one of his best drafts. Who they picked with the move up back into 3 for a 3rd pick is not at issue -- but Millen had to give up 2 4ths to do it. I really would have loved the move if he had been able to do it with the Lions' 4th this year, and the early 5th from KC. While a 4th next year, if they do well, is going to be pretty close to what that early 5 was rated this year -- I would still have liked to see them go into next draft with a full complement of picks.

That being said, teams were paying Kings Ransoms to move up, and Millen's move in the 3rd was again done with clear purpose, just like the other two trades earlier. Point wise, it was pretty close on the Value Chart.

Overall, at the end of the weekend, Millen essentially was able to get two additional picks -- a 3rd and a 5th, while only giving up a 4th and 6th. (I didn't count the two spots in round 1, because they still got the player they wanted.) On the whole, that is an equitable, if not spectacular outcome. Add in the significance of moving up with the 3rd, and I will leave it at this:

As a GM, Millen did exactly what he needed to do to get Rod the players he was wanted, to fill the teams' needs, in the best place they could reasonably get them. It also seemed like the Lions had done enough practice, and looked at enough scenarios, that when round one especially looked to be going totally against them, they had a back-up plan in place to turn it to the best advantage they could under the circumstances.

Kudos Millen. One pundit stated that "Matt Millen finally seems to be getting the hang of this draft thing..." I say, funny how every year Rod has been around, Millen's drafting skills keep improving...

But one skill he had in the past, and continues to utilize efficiently, is the ability to make the trades he needs to in order to get his coach the guys he wants - at a reasonable price.

Mini-Camp 05-3-08

Here is a great video from NFL.com (via Detroitlions.com) of the Lions min-camp, and some interviews. Loved the interviews. Was particularly impressed with Dizon -- very well spoken, and really seemed to have a handle on the NFL, and how things were going to work in general. Cherilus sounded good as well. Dizon, Cherilus, and Dizon were already sounding Marinelli-ish talking about earning the right to play -- and not expecting to be given a starting job as a high round pick. That was great to see.

You can view the video yourselves -- Comments? Additional info to share?

Recapping/Responding to Grades

For those of you who haven't found them all, I will start with links to the grades the Lions received from various sporting outlets. I do not agree with many of them, just to let you know, and will be responding to them below. My own evaluation of the draft will be following in a 3-4+ part series over the next week. I also have put out some inquiries to Boston area media outlets requesting information on Gosder Cherilus and the off-field "issues" many have a problem with, and if/when I get more information, I will do a piece on him, including that, as well.

On to the moron "expert" draft grades:

Hondo
SI.com
CBSSportsline.com
Yahoo! (Robinson)
NFL.com
ESPN.com
Foxsports.com
USAToday.com
WalterFootball.com
Sporting News
Gosselin

I know that most of you have already read these "grades" -- what I find interesting about this year's draft for the Lions is that the "experts" seem to all be having trouble gauging it. The evaluations range from F to A overall -- this is VERY unusual. Among draftniks and journalists, there is usually very little dissension in draft grades. They all use essentially the same "Kiper Scale" before the draft, and grade teams according to it afterwards.

What is even more interesting is the individual player evaluations what was the worst pick to one evaluator, was the best for the next. They were split on Cherilous, about 30% liked Dizon, and about 30% said Smith is no good. Some loved Avril and thought he "redeemed" them, while others thought he was still a reach. Fluellen is either the next Warren Sapp or will make Shaun Cody look like Warren Sapp by comparison, depending on who you believe.

As I have said many times, the true evaluation of every draft -- if you are looking at how "successful" players are "going to be" -- has to be done 3 years down the road; how the class did or did not impact a team over time is the only way to tell. Carucci had the right idea when he labeled his "bottom group" wait and see...he should have put everyone under that label.

What it really comes down to, is that -- for one reason or another, the Lions pissed off almost every evaluator outside of Gosselin and Dr.Z by NOT taking who that evaluator would have.

The same guys who would pan Millen for taking another Skill player in 1, ream the Lions for "passing up" on Mendenhall (whom Dallas also passed on before Pittsburgh picked him up near the end of the round ). They hit the Lions for not picking Connor in 2 over Dizon, when 3 more LB, including ILB Tavares Gooden by Baltimore at 71, were taken before him.

I could go on and on. Gosselin gave the Lions high grades initially because he evaluates the draft differently than everyone else (wish I had the time and skill to do it his way!). He rates ALL the players he thinks have a shot at getting drafted before the draft. Each one gets a point value. He then uses that players point value in correlation to where they were picked to term it as Value, Reach, Great Value, or Big Reach. The Lions got Value with everyone but Smith -- he was a Great Value. His system doesn't take into account who he would pick, what the team needs are (value to the team) -- it only values the player and where they were picked. This means a team could have an A+ draft from Gosselin and still not fill any team needs -- so using only this type of scale can be misleading (like any scale)

On the whole, I think most writers didn't like the Lions' draft because it wasn't "sexy". As we honed in on before the draft, it was very un-sexy, but functional. Kind of like me buying a mini-van versus a sporty little car. Sure, the sporty little car is "fun" and "exciting to drive" and also would be a pain in the butt and near impossible to use with my 3 kids. My minivan seats 7 with ample room, gets moderately good mileage, and is very utilitarian. Sure, no is going to say "Damn man -- that Windstar is freakin awesome -- it does 0-60, in how long??" -- but it will do everything I need it to do effectively and efficiently. It may not be as fun as a Mustang for the price, but it does what I need it to do.

The Lions got one heck of a Minivan in this draft. Here's to one Lions fan who is glad they finally passed on the sports cars.



(Writer's Note: I will revisit these "grades" in 1, 2, and 3 years to see how they are really panning out. Funny how they all forget saying how "great" a move was that turned out disastrous!)