After a night of sleep on the DB situation, and a couple of extra hours at the office WMAO (I was short-staffed today) I had a few more thoughts, and a few things seemed to become clearer. As nobsnubber put it, and as I thought about it, I too am now convinced the Lions are not going to take a CB before the 4th round. Not happening. See his comment on my prior entry and I agree with him on how the defensive backfield will look for the Lions in 08. As of right now, what you see is what you get.
Before I get into implications of this, I would like to say goodbye to another early Millen draft flop - Boss Bailey -- we'll miss you way less than you missed tackles. As I looked back, he fell into the second round that year due to: Injury concerns, and a fear he would never learn to tackle. The Lions gambled, and lost on both counts. He was often injured and my 4 year old daughter could tackle NFL RB's and WR better than him. Right now. Imagine how hard I LMAO when the Broncos were listed as having "upgraded at the SLB with the addition of Boss Bailey." Bet that line gets scrubbed about a half game into the preseason.
So back to the offseason. A new inventory of the various position groups is needed. Now, according to netrat (whose awesome site - especially salary cap estimates - is listed to your left) the Lions have just a touch over 3 mil under tha cap left (not including the Rookie Pool).
I can see them off-loading Kennedy and maybe netting about 2 mil or so in cap space (correct me if I'm wrong). I also see them ditching or restructuring Kalimba's deal to save some dough -- lets say a mil. So at best they may be able to squeeze out about 5 -6 mil in cap space if needed.
This says to me a few things: Not many more FA signings for the Lions before the draft -- and honestly looking at it (I'll break it down further on) -- why should they? The best players are long gone from what was a mediocre group to start with. I wondered why they didn't go after Briggs, until my Boss - who is a die hard Bears fan - pointed out that when their Dline was hurt last year, their LB were exposed as not being able to stop the run -- Briggs included. Not really the type of LB you need to pay 6-7 mil a year for -- especially with the Lions D-Line. Looking at the guaranteed money and big fat contracts replacable guys like Woody, Duckett, Rogers' new contract, Wilson (S. Giants), DT Kelley of the Raiders, even Boss Bailey and Teddy Lehman got some pretty fat deals. Miami was handing out big contracts to guys like G Smiley and Faneca got that record contract -- and his skills have been noticably declining the last few seasons.
Keeping all of this in mind, I am glad the Lions decided to follow their strategy this year. Notice a trend? They picked up veterans on D in the secondary who know the system, but are at a point in their career where they are more back-up and rotation guys. They are there to mentor and teach the younger guys, and make sure the young guys and this year's rookies buy into the system and learn it. This is a shift in philosophy and has a lot to do, I think, with Marinelli's influence.
I also approve, with the weak FA class, the Lions' cap move to accelerate CJ's bonus so that they lower his cap number for the next 5 years. Smart move on their part so they have money in future years to keep their own good players, rather than letting them hit the market (like Roy and KJ if he recovers well.)
I also keep hearing about Pearson - and I'm sick of it. Listen - the guy is 3 things: Back-up CB, Back-up S, star Special Teamer. The Lions are just using a Dback instead of the usual LB. End of story. If he wins a fight for playing time at CB or S -- that means he is upgrading a position of need, which is a nice bonus. And the Lions can sure use the special teams help.
Thanks for staying with my somewhat rambling post tonight -- I appreciate your readership and comments -- for and against what I think!
So onto a brief look at position groups:
QB: Kitna, Stanton, Orlovsky -- I look for there to be a lively competition for the starting Job this offseason. I think Stanton wins the starting job - in 2009. I see Orlovsky sticking around as the third guy for a while. I also think they'll convince Kitna to stay on at that point unless some desperate team a-la-2006 Lions signs him on to start. Not likely, and he would be a good mentor for Stanton. Like them or not - QB is going to be set for a couple fo years right where it is.
RB: KJ, Calhoun, Cason -- Cason is a camp body, and I see him getting beat out in camp and cut - again. They didn't give him a SB so no cap hit if they cut him before the season. As usual. Calhoun I think deserves a chance, as he's never really gotten a chance to show if/what he has. KJ is coming off another major injury. Is it the start of the Offseason without KJ rehab updates? The success in recent years of late round and undrafted backs (Keith, Grant, Bradshaw, Graham to name a few) has shown that good backs are plentiful -- so plentiful that tops backs are still expected to be around in the 4th this year (!) -- and that is just guys on the radar already -- not including the hungry bruisers who will show up at training camp with a chip on their shoulder and run angry into a starting job. All this says to me: The Lions will be drafting a RB before the end of the 3rd and possibly a second back later. No need to sign any additional FA RB's. I think the signing of Cason showed they are going to wait on the Draft for that position. What they can get for what cap they have wouldn't be worth it.
WR: Williams, CJ, Furrey, McDonald, TBA -- Not much to say here. There is finally no logical or even illogical reason for Millen to draft/sign any more WR's. Someone cheap who can play special teams will win the 5th spot in the offseason. Hopefully someone who has a much better return average on P and KOR then they've been getting please!!!
OLine: LT Backus LG Mulitalo/Ramierz (camp battle) C Raiola RG Peterman/Davis RT Scott -- I'm going out on a limb to say they feel they are set until the draft. I think the competition at G between Peterman, Mulitalo, Davis and Ramierez to start will keep the G position strong again this year (yes -- outside of the kooky we always use a 7 step drop calls from Martz, the center of the line played quite well last season - Raiola included.) It is the OT where more competition is needed. I want to see them take a first round tackle to fight with Backus and Scott -- both of whom are starters, but both of whom could also be improved upon. A three way battle, with the Loser making a great backup. I see them having Davis take snaps to be the backup center. No info, just a hunch as I see him as the 4th man out on at the G position.
TE: Campbell, Fitzsimmons, Owens, Gaines -- Gaines is an up and comer who is already a strong blocker -- which the Lions will need for their run game; but also has shown he can catch the ball well when given the opportunity -- he just wasn't given the opportunity. Something tells me he will be this year. I like that signing, but can see them taking a chance on a TE in the 6th or 7th, or bringing in a lot of UDFA into camp as they are still thin at the position with the injury to Campbell still lingering -- possibly into the season -- and Fitzsimmons and Owens ripe for upgrading.
FB: Jon Bradley -- Maybe they move him back to DT now that Rogers is gone? I'm just not sure. I hope they utilize him more, because even though he was only in on plays where it was obvious either he was going to run it or he was going to block for the runner -- he still did quite well in his first season on offense. If they utliize a FB more in a power run game, then he will be just offense. But I can see him playing both ways if need be, or if he can beat out whoever replaces S. Rogers. As you can tell at this point, I have no clue. FB on the Lions hasn't been any real fun since the Sledge left (I have a signed Ridell mini-helmet from him in my office on display. Was and always will be one of my all time favorite Lions.)
DEFENSE
S & CB: See post by me yesterday and comments associated with for the best detail here. Needless to say -- the position has been filled, and no one taken other than a CB 4th or after.
DE: Edwards, Smith, White, IAF -- Yes, Kalimba is still on the team, and under contract. As I said above, I expect them to ask him to restructure to be a backup, or dump him for a pick to package with a 3rd to trade into the second round during the draft. The thinking on the Lions is that IAF is ready to start and make in impact. I hope they're right because by the time they pick an OT, MLB, DT, and RB by the end of the 3rd there are no starting level DE's left. I've read many places that outside of the top 3, there is a huge dropoff and that they are all expected to be gone before the Lions pick in round one. So my take is: Gamble on IAF and draft one later. If he doesn't work, draft one early next year -- because if that happens, it'll be a top 15 pick again.
DT: Cody, Redding, Moore -- they need to plug a hole here and there is no one in FA to do it. That is why someone took a risk on players like Rogers and injury prone Kris Jenkins like they did, for the price they did. I think Redding did better than it looked last year. All too often, the RB up the middle was able to sidle past Rogers to the outside middle, and then cut directly at Lenon for a 10 yard gain after Simms caught up them and finally made the tackle, or a 15 yard gain while Lenon got dragged. They need to get a solid DT in the 3rd, or better yet -- trade up into the second for a better DT prospect. While there is a big dropoff after the top 2 -- there is a good number of solid, motivated DT's who will be available latter half of the second, beginning of the 3rd that will work very well for the Lions. I would have liked to see them gets Robertson but A. He won't be traded for cap reasons, I agree with others who have said he will be designated a June 1st cut.
B. He will be asking more than the Lions can afford, and there will possibly be a mini-bidding war for his services.
C. did anyone notice that the Bengals again were uanble to finish a trade for a DT -- this time Robertson -- after screwing up the cap in the deal. And we thought Millen was inept...even he didn't screw up two trades at the same position, in the same week, for almost the exact same reason. Are they trying to be stupider than the Raiders or something?
Getting back to the point -- they need to draft for DT because waiting around to see if Robertson will be available, affordable, and will come here is just too risky.
LB: Lewis, Lenon, Simms, and other guys who can't play at this level -- I'll have to check, but can anyone else name a Lions LB under contract? Bueller? They need some serious LB help. MLB round 2 -- there should be a couple fo great options for them there again this year, and I hope for once they take one! They also need to bring in a bunch of UDFA at all the LB positions, and draft it late as well. More than the secondary now LB is a position of weakness. IF they draft a MLB in the 2nd, I can see a starting group of Simms-2nd Pick(Lofton?)-Lewis/Lenon doing pretty good. I'd like to see someone win out a competition to beat out Lenon and Lewis -- but even some solid backups with the potential to do so next season would be nice. Anthony Cannon still on the squad? I'm too tired to look it up right now.
And there you have it. A summary of my current mock is:
1. OT
2. MLB
3. DT
3. RB
4. CB
5. LB
6. LB or Dline or TE
7. Do these really matter considering Millen is picking them? Seriously folks. There are ZERO 5th - 7th round picks from 2001 - 2007 on the roster. Here's hoping that changes!
Thursday, March 6, 2008
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
Safety Dance?
I know that safety is priority one on the job site. But on the Lions? Seriously folks -- the Lions now have SEVEN safeties under contract. They also resigned Travis Fisher at CB. So I thought about it, and I can see, with who they signed, where this may be going. Not saying I like or dislike the moves -- I'm just not sure yet. I am almost sure it means 2 things:
1. The Lions are NOT signing Brian Kelly
2. The Lions are not going to use a high draft pick on a CB.
So lets take a look at listed position, and the known contract for each player in the defensive backfield:
S Kenoy Kennedy: 2.7 Million
S Daniel Bullocks: 445,000
S Gerald Alexander: Unsure
S Greg Blue: ERFA - not tendered
S Dwight Smith: 2 yrs 5 mil (most 2nd yr)
S Kalvin Pearson: 1.20 mil base; 325k cap hit SB
S Patrick Body: Unsure
CB Travis Fisher 3 mil
CB Leigh Bodden 1.7 mil
CB Keith Smith 2 mil
CB Stanley Wilson 927k
So there you have a majority of the Lions 2008 DB's -- plus maybe a low round draft pick.
By all accounts, I see Kennedy as gone. He has not been a great locker room leader, he doesn't do crap on special teams, and hasn't been the hard hitting safety for the Lions he was with Denver. I don't think they want to cut him outright, but I can see him leaving as a draft day trade - possibly like McCown last year for a 4th. Millen then used the Lions' 4th as part of a package to get one of their two additional 2nd rounders. With the solid players in need areas available in the 2nd, and Millen's awful record after the 3rd round, I can see them packaging their 3rds with 4th or 5th rounders to get back into 3 2nd like they did last draft.
Now, assuming Kennedy will be gone, that still leaves 4 CB's, and 6 S. Pearson has played both CB and S, as has Smith. Pearson is also a hard-core special teamer. I see him as the 5th CB on the roster, rather than the 4th S. Body didn't get a SB, and I see him as camp competition for the 4th S spot. I don't think they will bring Bashir back.
They may also consider moving Alexander to CB, but after careful consideration, I don't see it. Smith was brought in to be a backup S and teach/mentor the two young starting S Bullocks and Alexander. While it's a long way to training camp - I don't see the Lions picking a CB until the 3rd or 4th round now. I think it will be:
Starters:
S Alexander and Bullocks
Backups: Smith and one of: Kennedy, Blue, Body
CB: Bodden starting, with Fisher and Smith rotating the other side
Wilson rotating with Fisher and Smith in the nickle, and Pearson as the "extra" CB and S, and a core special teams player.
That has the Lions keeping 4 S and 5 CB; I think they will keep the extra DB for special teams versus an extra LB like they have in the past. If they draft a high CB, I think Wilson is gone. They only gave him a 6th round tender, and it won't cost them cap wise if he is cut. As for Pearson, I have read from TB sites that while he was a solid backup to have around at S and Cb, he is a star ST player -- which the Lions desperately needed after last years ST fiasco's.
While I'm not sold on the above moves being a major upgrade over last season, I do view it as an upgrade overall. It leaves the Lions more free on draft day as well. I'm not convinced they need to take a CB before round 3 or 4 now this season. With how the deals are structured, they can get a CB next year to upgrade over the current if one is available; same at S -- without taking any sizable cap hits. Even as it is, they are only taking up about 14 mil in cap space on the Defensive secondary. That's 11 of 53 guys. 22% of the team for about 13% of the Cap. And with a good mix of Veterans and young up and coming players. Okay, maybe I like the moves better than I thought. We'll just have to see I guess. Thoughts?
This differs significantly in their approach to contracts in the past (and how many teams are guaranteeing big contracts to guys like Woody, SRogers,Duckett, Walker,Berrian et al) where they couldn't cut a guy in the first two years if they wanted to. (Kirwan on NFL.com has a good article on it.)
This development of being "set" (In Millen's eyes) at DB means I'll have to re-evaluate my drafting and FA needs...again. But that is what tomorrow is for.
Well, this is the most exciting time of year to be a Lions fan -- the offseason!
1. The Lions are NOT signing Brian Kelly
2. The Lions are not going to use a high draft pick on a CB.
So lets take a look at listed position, and the known contract for each player in the defensive backfield:
S Kenoy Kennedy: 2.7 Million
S Daniel Bullocks: 445,000
S Gerald Alexander: Unsure
S Greg Blue: ERFA - not tendered
S Dwight Smith: 2 yrs 5 mil (most 2nd yr)
S Kalvin Pearson: 1.20 mil base; 325k cap hit SB
S Patrick Body: Unsure
CB Travis Fisher 3 mil
CB Leigh Bodden 1.7 mil
CB Keith Smith 2 mil
CB Stanley Wilson 927k
So there you have a majority of the Lions 2008 DB's -- plus maybe a low round draft pick.
By all accounts, I see Kennedy as gone. He has not been a great locker room leader, he doesn't do crap on special teams, and hasn't been the hard hitting safety for the Lions he was with Denver. I don't think they want to cut him outright, but I can see him leaving as a draft day trade - possibly like McCown last year for a 4th. Millen then used the Lions' 4th as part of a package to get one of their two additional 2nd rounders. With the solid players in need areas available in the 2nd, and Millen's awful record after the 3rd round, I can see them packaging their 3rds with 4th or 5th rounders to get back into 3 2nd like they did last draft.
Now, assuming Kennedy will be gone, that still leaves 4 CB's, and 6 S. Pearson has played both CB and S, as has Smith. Pearson is also a hard-core special teamer. I see him as the 5th CB on the roster, rather than the 4th S. Body didn't get a SB, and I see him as camp competition for the 4th S spot. I don't think they will bring Bashir back.
They may also consider moving Alexander to CB, but after careful consideration, I don't see it. Smith was brought in to be a backup S and teach/mentor the two young starting S Bullocks and Alexander. While it's a long way to training camp - I don't see the Lions picking a CB until the 3rd or 4th round now. I think it will be:
Starters:
S Alexander and Bullocks
Backups: Smith and one of: Kennedy, Blue, Body
CB: Bodden starting, with Fisher and Smith rotating the other side
Wilson rotating with Fisher and Smith in the nickle, and Pearson as the "extra" CB and S, and a core special teams player.
That has the Lions keeping 4 S and 5 CB; I think they will keep the extra DB for special teams versus an extra LB like they have in the past. If they draft a high CB, I think Wilson is gone. They only gave him a 6th round tender, and it won't cost them cap wise if he is cut. As for Pearson, I have read from TB sites that while he was a solid backup to have around at S and Cb, he is a star ST player -- which the Lions desperately needed after last years ST fiasco's.
While I'm not sold on the above moves being a major upgrade over last season, I do view it as an upgrade overall. It leaves the Lions more free on draft day as well. I'm not convinced they need to take a CB before round 3 or 4 now this season. With how the deals are structured, they can get a CB next year to upgrade over the current if one is available; same at S -- without taking any sizable cap hits. Even as it is, they are only taking up about 14 mil in cap space on the Defensive secondary. That's 11 of 53 guys. 22% of the team for about 13% of the Cap. And with a good mix of Veterans and young up and coming players. Okay, maybe I like the moves better than I thought. We'll just have to see I guess. Thoughts?
This differs significantly in their approach to contracts in the past (and how many teams are guaranteeing big contracts to guys like Woody, SRogers,Duckett, Walker,Berrian et al) where they couldn't cut a guy in the first two years if they wanted to. (Kirwan on NFL.com has a good article on it.)
This development of being "set" (In Millen's eyes) at DB means I'll have to re-evaluate my drafting and FA needs...again. But that is what tomorrow is for.
Well, this is the most exciting time of year to be a Lions fan -- the offseason!
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Free Agency Again - and a Farewell
First of all, I must take a moment and bid a fond farewell to Brett Favre. As much as I have agonized over watching him defeat the Lions time and again over the years, I must also say I was very lucky. Twice a year, I got to watch a Hall Of Fame QB - one of the all time greats - do his thing. Goodbye Brett - and best wishes on the rest of your life.
Now, back to the Lions. While many of the free agents that have been visiting the Lions have been less than stellar, it appears that they all have one thing in common:
They are all in need areas for the Lions. Any WR visiting? No. Lions upgraded safety early with Smith to be a veteran presence for Bullocks and Alexander. Any safeties visit since then? No.
The FA have thus far been at DT, MLB, DE, RB, CB and OT.
DT: I still think the Lions should go for Dwayne Robertson of the Jets, but it looks unlikely now. They seem likely to sign the system-veteran Darby, and look to rely on him, Moore and Cody at DT. It seems likely to me they may draft a DT with one of their two 3rd rounders.
MLB: They were unable to get Vilma, according to Barry, and it actually surprises me a bit -- but the Lions I'm sure didn't want to give up a third, and that seems to be what they would have needed to give up for him. Can't say as I totally agree with that move -- although a 3rd rounder for someone with one year left looking for a big payday likely wasn't in the long term interest of the team - which is what Marinelli seems to be looking to as he trys to build a solid foundation, not just pile up patches. I would like to see them draft a MLB with their second rounder, as it appears there will be 2-3 solid MLB picks available when the Lions choose in the second.
DE: They haven't cut Kalimba yet, and I think he may be either used for depth in the rotation -- likely after being asked to take a pay cut -- or put forth as trade bait on draft day. With how desperate teams are for DE's, some other team may -- like with Rogers -- feel they can get him over the hump and able to translate his potential to success on the field. I feel the Lions (justified or not) have a lot of confidence in Alama-Francis, and feel he will be a solid contributor at DE next season, and that he will only get better from there. While that remains to be seen, because of this I don't see the Lions drafting a DE early, especially not with their other needs. 4th round.
RB: This position is definitely a need with Calhoun and KJ, the only two backs under contract, both ending last season on IR. CAlhoun has never really been given a shot due to injuries, and his time may be up. KJ will likely be back -- but what will he have left after two major injuries in as many years? TJ would have been nice to bring back at the right price, but as his Seattle contract shows, he wasn't going to come at a price the Lions could afford to pay. I think that the deep draft at RB and the availability of at least a half dozen other FA RB of TJ's skill level led to this decision. Again, I would have liked to see him back, especially since he seemed to enjoy playing for the Lions but am thankful they once more didn't break the bank for a mediocre player. It's not like their SB bound and need just one or two guys to get there... All of the being said, I hope they don't sign Dunn unless he's really cheap. Julius Jones either. Many teams have Had luck with either late round or undrafted RB - especially the big bruising backs like TJ -- in recent years. They are looking for someone who can start right away, so I can see using a 5th on a RB. (depending on who is available, and when they select a DE - maybe flop the 4th-5th for RB DE.)
CB: I really like what the Lions have done this off season in the entire secondary. They essentially let everyone go and started from scratch. Why not? no one performed so well last year as to be irreplaceable by far. I even contend they may have done better last year canning everyone and going with the best UDFA they could find after having a massive competition. But I digress. Bringing back Smith was a good move -- he was developing well, and some players take a few years to really bloom - especially at CB. You see many older CB who really came into their own after 3 or 4 years in the league. At worst, he is a great nickel back right now, at best he is a borderline starter. The trade to bring Bodden in gives them at least one quality starter who is better than any CB they had last year, and thus upgrades the unit as a whole already. He is also the versatile, physical type of corner the T2 needs. Kelley (sp?) would be good to bring in for the right money, but I can't see breaking the bank on him. He is a good T2 corner who's skills are declining. He would make a good starter while a younger draft pick gets rotated in and learns the D - taking over in a season or two. The Lions are not in a position to be able to immediately upgrade all positions, so some band aids like Kelley at CB and Darby at DT will be necessary until they are able to build a better core through the draft. With who they have, I can see using a 3rd rounder on a good T2 corner -- there will be plenty left to choose from in this deep CB draft, and fewer teams running the T2 actually means there will be more CB the Lions want available later in the draft than pure cover guys for the 3-4.
OT: I saved the best for last. The O-Line. With Peterman doing so well, and Mulitalo being one of the best, yet most overlooked, acquisitions last off season, the Lions are doing well at G. Ramierez seems like he is ready to at least be a backup, and possibly push Peterman and/or Mulitalo for playing time. Despite many rants and raves about him, Raiola is still considered one of the better centers in the league. He is not a pile mover, but is flexible and smart. He also blocks well in space on screens and play action passing in the flat, which I think we will see more of this year under Coletto. What the Lions do need is at least one high quality Tackle. Backus has played injured the last two years, and although Scott played well when he was in, he too has not proven he can stay healthy and produce at a high level. Woody did about as well as Peterman, but as you can see by the HUGE contract the Jets paid him -- it wouldn't have paid to keep him. Big contract = fat and lazy once shame on you. Twice, shame on me. Hope the Jets have better luck with him after his payday than the Lions, but I wouldn't count on it if I were them. I again am glad to see the Lions showing restraint instead of throwing big contracts at Kalimba caliber players out of fear. Marinelli is holding the line, and doing what he can while trying to build through the draft. This being said (I was in the take-Joe-Thomas-camp last year), and while it may never happen under Millen (as it hasn't since he took Backus) - I'd like to see the Lions go OT for Round 1. A first round OT pick will push for a 3 way competition between the rookie, Backus, and Scott for the starting tackle spots. This will lead the best 2 to start, and still have a starting caliber T backing them up. This would be a novelty for the Lions - even though in the NFL it is essential to a winning team.
That is my overview of needs, and how the Lions can/should address them. Don't bother telling me Millen is still running the franchise so it'll never happen, because I haven't forgotten.
However -- I do have hope. The last couple of drafts - while Millen's stamp still screwed a few things up -- have been head and shoulders better than before Marinelli arrived. Now that Marinelli appears to be more secure in wielding his power, I think we will see his influence over more of the draft and FA pickups -- and already have. So I look forward to more Ernie Simms type picks this year, versus flashy picks.
Summary:
Sign Kelley and a DT (Darby?)
Draft:
1. OT
2. MLB
3. DT & CB
4. DE or RB
5. RB or RB (whichever they didn't draft in the 4th)
6. Like it'll matter, but LB, CB or Dline depth
7. Same
Roast away and tell me: did I miss any need areas? Agree or disagree with where I say to draft for needs? Disagree with what the needs are? Ideas on who to draft? Comment away!!
Now, back to the Lions. While many of the free agents that have been visiting the Lions have been less than stellar, it appears that they all have one thing in common:
They are all in need areas for the Lions. Any WR visiting? No. Lions upgraded safety early with Smith to be a veteran presence for Bullocks and Alexander. Any safeties visit since then? No.
The FA have thus far been at DT, MLB, DE, RB, CB and OT.
DT: I still think the Lions should go for Dwayne Robertson of the Jets, but it looks unlikely now. They seem likely to sign the system-veteran Darby, and look to rely on him, Moore and Cody at DT. It seems likely to me they may draft a DT with one of their two 3rd rounders.
MLB: They were unable to get Vilma, according to Barry, and it actually surprises me a bit -- but the Lions I'm sure didn't want to give up a third, and that seems to be what they would have needed to give up for him. Can't say as I totally agree with that move -- although a 3rd rounder for someone with one year left looking for a big payday likely wasn't in the long term interest of the team - which is what Marinelli seems to be looking to as he trys to build a solid foundation, not just pile up patches. I would like to see them draft a MLB with their second rounder, as it appears there will be 2-3 solid MLB picks available when the Lions choose in the second.
DE: They haven't cut Kalimba yet, and I think he may be either used for depth in the rotation -- likely after being asked to take a pay cut -- or put forth as trade bait on draft day. With how desperate teams are for DE's, some other team may -- like with Rogers -- feel they can get him over the hump and able to translate his potential to success on the field. I feel the Lions (justified or not) have a lot of confidence in Alama-Francis, and feel he will be a solid contributor at DE next season, and that he will only get better from there. While that remains to be seen, because of this I don't see the Lions drafting a DE early, especially not with their other needs. 4th round.
RB: This position is definitely a need with Calhoun and KJ, the only two backs under contract, both ending last season on IR. CAlhoun has never really been given a shot due to injuries, and his time may be up. KJ will likely be back -- but what will he have left after two major injuries in as many years? TJ would have been nice to bring back at the right price, but as his Seattle contract shows, he wasn't going to come at a price the Lions could afford to pay. I think that the deep draft at RB and the availability of at least a half dozen other FA RB of TJ's skill level led to this decision. Again, I would have liked to see him back, especially since he seemed to enjoy playing for the Lions but am thankful they once more didn't break the bank for a mediocre player. It's not like their SB bound and need just one or two guys to get there... All of the being said, I hope they don't sign Dunn unless he's really cheap. Julius Jones either. Many teams have Had luck with either late round or undrafted RB - especially the big bruising backs like TJ -- in recent years. They are looking for someone who can start right away, so I can see using a 5th on a RB. (depending on who is available, and when they select a DE - maybe flop the 4th-5th for RB DE.)
CB: I really like what the Lions have done this off season in the entire secondary. They essentially let everyone go and started from scratch. Why not? no one performed so well last year as to be irreplaceable by far. I even contend they may have done better last year canning everyone and going with the best UDFA they could find after having a massive competition. But I digress. Bringing back Smith was a good move -- he was developing well, and some players take a few years to really bloom - especially at CB. You see many older CB who really came into their own after 3 or 4 years in the league. At worst, he is a great nickel back right now, at best he is a borderline starter. The trade to bring Bodden in gives them at least one quality starter who is better than any CB they had last year, and thus upgrades the unit as a whole already. He is also the versatile, physical type of corner the T2 needs. Kelley (sp?) would be good to bring in for the right money, but I can't see breaking the bank on him. He is a good T2 corner who's skills are declining. He would make a good starter while a younger draft pick gets rotated in and learns the D - taking over in a season or two. The Lions are not in a position to be able to immediately upgrade all positions, so some band aids like Kelley at CB and Darby at DT will be necessary until they are able to build a better core through the draft. With who they have, I can see using a 3rd rounder on a good T2 corner -- there will be plenty left to choose from in this deep CB draft, and fewer teams running the T2 actually means there will be more CB the Lions want available later in the draft than pure cover guys for the 3-4.
OT: I saved the best for last. The O-Line. With Peterman doing so well, and Mulitalo being one of the best, yet most overlooked, acquisitions last off season, the Lions are doing well at G. Ramierez seems like he is ready to at least be a backup, and possibly push Peterman and/or Mulitalo for playing time. Despite many rants and raves about him, Raiola is still considered one of the better centers in the league. He is not a pile mover, but is flexible and smart. He also blocks well in space on screens and play action passing in the flat, which I think we will see more of this year under Coletto. What the Lions do need is at least one high quality Tackle. Backus has played injured the last two years, and although Scott played well when he was in, he too has not proven he can stay healthy and produce at a high level. Woody did about as well as Peterman, but as you can see by the HUGE contract the Jets paid him -- it wouldn't have paid to keep him. Big contract = fat and lazy once shame on you. Twice, shame on me. Hope the Jets have better luck with him after his payday than the Lions, but I wouldn't count on it if I were them. I again am glad to see the Lions showing restraint instead of throwing big contracts at Kalimba caliber players out of fear. Marinelli is holding the line, and doing what he can while trying to build through the draft. This being said (I was in the take-Joe-Thomas-camp last year), and while it may never happen under Millen (as it hasn't since he took Backus) - I'd like to see the Lions go OT for Round 1. A first round OT pick will push for a 3 way competition between the rookie, Backus, and Scott for the starting tackle spots. This will lead the best 2 to start, and still have a starting caliber T backing them up. This would be a novelty for the Lions - even though in the NFL it is essential to a winning team.
That is my overview of needs, and how the Lions can/should address them. Don't bother telling me Millen is still running the franchise so it'll never happen, because I haven't forgotten.
However -- I do have hope. The last couple of drafts - while Millen's stamp still screwed a few things up -- have been head and shoulders better than before Marinelli arrived. Now that Marinelli appears to be more secure in wielding his power, I think we will see his influence over more of the draft and FA pickups -- and already have. So I look forward to more Ernie Simms type picks this year, versus flashy picks.
Summary:
Sign Kelley and a DT (Darby?)
Draft:
1. OT
2. MLB
3. DT & CB
4. DE or RB
5. RB or RB (whichever they didn't draft in the 4th)
6. Like it'll matter, but LB, CB or Dline depth
7. Same
Roast away and tell me: did I miss any need areas? Agree or disagree with where I say to draft for needs? Disagree with what the needs are? Ideas on who to draft? Comment away!!
Sunday, March 2, 2008
Lions Free Agency Thoughts
As we get into the real meat of free agency, there is a lot going on with the Lions that bears looking at. To me, the first few days of free agency are the "big money" days -- those are the days where teams like the Redskins, and formerly the Lions, would spend huge money on average players, or overspend for one great guy -- to try to make up for a lack of drafting. The 49ers are, as Don Banks put it, the new Redskins -- spending big money to little effect because while Free Agents can help fill holes, you can't make a whole team of free agents and expect to succeed.
On a quick side note, speaking of the 49ers -- and even Miami -- notice that the 49ers have signed both Issac Bruce (who is way past his prime people) and JT O'sullivan to make Martz happy...makes you wonder what their draft will look like. They also signed Deshaun Foster because he is a "Martz type back" out of the backfield. If you own Frank Gore in your fantasy league, and haven't already done so, dump him now for whatever you can get. Just my two cents worth.
As I mentioned Miami, Parcells is bringing in his guys in FA and trade that he drafted or had under him on the Jets and in Dallas -- in some cases, like with NT Ferguson, both spots. So when we refer to Tampa North, keep in mind that the Lions are by far not the only team to do this when the coaches are in their first few years and guys are available. After all, they had those players for a reason -- not only do they know them, but usually they were under that coach because they fit their philosophy and had the right skill set for their system in the first place.
Anybody see that contract Justin Smith got? Yikes! Dwayne White may not be elite, but he is a solid DE and his contract is nothing comparatively. It would have been hard for the Lions to justify paying Smith that much money, since he is essentially at a slightly lower skill level than White. The more I look at what they gave him, the more I see that White was a very solid, smart signing last off season. Kudos to Marinelli for getting that done.
My Lance Briggs dreams were dashed when he decided to stay with the Bears -- and at about a million a year less than Washington was going to offer him. Apparently, he decided it was better to stay where he knew he could play great, and still have a shot at the playoffs (assuming they get a QB other than Rex or Kyle -- which considering they resigned them both, we don't have to worry about this year)
The Sean Rogers trade: Lets not lambaste the guy too bad, as you can read in Killer Kowalski's story here:
http://www.mlive.com/lions/index.ssf/2008/03/shaun_rogers_gives_lions_assis.html
he actually helped the Lions buy time, and then do what was needed, to get the Browns to give up Bodden and a 3rd -- which they would not do before, and is the reason the Lions were trading with the Bengals instead.
I really like this trade for a host of reasons.
1. Detroit gets a starting CB who is young and the type of physical CB needed to play in the T2
2. Cleveland didn't want to give him and a high draft pick up, which tells you something
3. Since the Jets landed their new Nose Tackle for their 3-4 Mangini likes (Kris Jenkins), they need to off-load Dwayne Robertson -- who is best suited as a 4-3 two technique tackle -- which is what Detroit is currently in need of to go with Cory Redding.
4. The market for DT's, in part set by Detroit, GB, and the Jags - puts his value at about a 3rd and a 5th.
See where this is going? I would love to see the Lions trade one of their 3rd and either a 4th or 5th round pick for Robertson. We all know Millen's 4th - 7th round picks are all out of football before their first season, so this trade makes sense. Plus, the Lions would essentially be giving up a 4th or a 5th round pick, and ending up with a new DT who will play every down AND a starting CB. Not a bad end result in anyone's book.
I also see the Lions signing Brian Kelly to polish off the CB position. If they make those two moves, that leaves a great situation.
1. With Bodden and Kelly, along with Smith and Wilson (both respectable nickel/dime backs), the Lions will be able to draft a T2 style corner in the 2nd or 3rd round as this is a deep CB year, and not need that player to immediately start. This will ultimately be better for the Lions, as their CB choice will be able to learn the D and play on nickle/dime and rotate in to get game experience while learning the system. the RIGHT way to build a team.
2. Assuming they pick up Robertson the most glaring needs will be: MLB, RT and DE. I am sure there will be plenty of options available when the Lions choose in the first.
3. Assuming they trade their extra 3rd and a 5th for Robertson, I'd like to see them use their 3rd and 4th to trade back into the second round -- and choose MLB-RT-CB in any given order with their first three picks. If they get one of the top tackles in Round 1, there should be Lofton available in the second (trade up if necessary) and a corner that in a year that isn't as loaded at the position would go in the first round.
If they make all of those moves, the Lions D will be significantly different from last season, and while it may take some time to gel together with all the young players, I can see it making solid progress as the season goes on. After the draft and FA, can you imagine how solid this D would be:
DE: White, IAF, 5th rnd pick, Smith
DT: Redding, Robertson, Langston Moore, S. Cody
CB: Bodden, Kelly, Smith, Wilson, 2nd Rnd CB Pick
LB: Simms, 2nd Rnd MLB, Lenon, Lewis
S: Alexander, Bullocks, Smith, Blue, Kennedy
the great part about the above scenario is that if they don't get Kelly, CB would still be fine without him -- that 2nd Rnd CB pick would just get more playing time.
I will admit, I think that IAF is going to have a huge year this year, and I think that Redding was not as bad as he seemed to be last year -- the DE are supposed to be the sack generators in the T2, while the DT's eat up the middle and stop the run. Put someone good (Robertson) next to him that actually plays every down, and I think the Dline will be much improved.
I'll go more into the Offense and more FA thoughts, draft thoughts, etc. this week. BTW -
I tested the comments and they should be fixed now. You don't have to sign in to comment, and you'll just have to type the little letters in the picture box to post. I really would love to see your comments -- for or against my opinions. I am open to change my mind! After all, I like intelligent discourse!
On a quick side note, speaking of the 49ers -- and even Miami -- notice that the 49ers have signed both Issac Bruce (who is way past his prime people) and JT O'sullivan to make Martz happy...makes you wonder what their draft will look like. They also signed Deshaun Foster because he is a "Martz type back" out of the backfield. If you own Frank Gore in your fantasy league, and haven't already done so, dump him now for whatever you can get. Just my two cents worth.
As I mentioned Miami, Parcells is bringing in his guys in FA and trade that he drafted or had under him on the Jets and in Dallas -- in some cases, like with NT Ferguson, both spots. So when we refer to Tampa North, keep in mind that the Lions are by far not the only team to do this when the coaches are in their first few years and guys are available. After all, they had those players for a reason -- not only do they know them, but usually they were under that coach because they fit their philosophy and had the right skill set for their system in the first place.
Anybody see that contract Justin Smith got? Yikes! Dwayne White may not be elite, but he is a solid DE and his contract is nothing comparatively. It would have been hard for the Lions to justify paying Smith that much money, since he is essentially at a slightly lower skill level than White. The more I look at what they gave him, the more I see that White was a very solid, smart signing last off season. Kudos to Marinelli for getting that done.
My Lance Briggs dreams were dashed when he decided to stay with the Bears -- and at about a million a year less than Washington was going to offer him. Apparently, he decided it was better to stay where he knew he could play great, and still have a shot at the playoffs (assuming they get a QB other than Rex or Kyle -- which considering they resigned them both, we don't have to worry about this year)
The Sean Rogers trade: Lets not lambaste the guy too bad, as you can read in Killer Kowalski's story here:
http://www.mlive.com/lions/index.ssf/2008/03/shaun_rogers_gives_lions_assis.html
he actually helped the Lions buy time, and then do what was needed, to get the Browns to give up Bodden and a 3rd -- which they would not do before, and is the reason the Lions were trading with the Bengals instead.
I really like this trade for a host of reasons.
1. Detroit gets a starting CB who is young and the type of physical CB needed to play in the T2
2. Cleveland didn't want to give him and a high draft pick up, which tells you something
3. Since the Jets landed their new Nose Tackle for their 3-4 Mangini likes (Kris Jenkins), they need to off-load Dwayne Robertson -- who is best suited as a 4-3 two technique tackle -- which is what Detroit is currently in need of to go with Cory Redding.
4. The market for DT's, in part set by Detroit, GB, and the Jags - puts his value at about a 3rd and a 5th.
See where this is going? I would love to see the Lions trade one of their 3rd and either a 4th or 5th round pick for Robertson. We all know Millen's 4th - 7th round picks are all out of football before their first season, so this trade makes sense. Plus, the Lions would essentially be giving up a 4th or a 5th round pick, and ending up with a new DT who will play every down AND a starting CB. Not a bad end result in anyone's book.
I also see the Lions signing Brian Kelly to polish off the CB position. If they make those two moves, that leaves a great situation.
1. With Bodden and Kelly, along with Smith and Wilson (both respectable nickel/dime backs), the Lions will be able to draft a T2 style corner in the 2nd or 3rd round as this is a deep CB year, and not need that player to immediately start. This will ultimately be better for the Lions, as their CB choice will be able to learn the D and play on nickle/dime and rotate in to get game experience while learning the system. the RIGHT way to build a team.
2. Assuming they pick up Robertson the most glaring needs will be: MLB, RT and DE. I am sure there will be plenty of options available when the Lions choose in the first.
3. Assuming they trade their extra 3rd and a 5th for Robertson, I'd like to see them use their 3rd and 4th to trade back into the second round -- and choose MLB-RT-CB in any given order with their first three picks. If they get one of the top tackles in Round 1, there should be Lofton available in the second (trade up if necessary) and a corner that in a year that isn't as loaded at the position would go in the first round.
If they make all of those moves, the Lions D will be significantly different from last season, and while it may take some time to gel together with all the young players, I can see it making solid progress as the season goes on. After the draft and FA, can you imagine how solid this D would be:
DE: White, IAF, 5th rnd pick, Smith
DT: Redding, Robertson, Langston Moore, S. Cody
CB: Bodden, Kelly, Smith, Wilson, 2nd Rnd CB Pick
LB: Simms, 2nd Rnd MLB, Lenon, Lewis
S: Alexander, Bullocks, Smith, Blue, Kennedy
the great part about the above scenario is that if they don't get Kelly, CB would still be fine without him -- that 2nd Rnd CB pick would just get more playing time.
I will admit, I think that IAF is going to have a huge year this year, and I think that Redding was not as bad as he seemed to be last year -- the DE are supposed to be the sack generators in the T2, while the DT's eat up the middle and stop the run. Put someone good (Robertson) next to him that actually plays every down, and I think the Dline will be much improved.
I'll go more into the Offense and more FA thoughts, draft thoughts, etc. this week. BTW -
I tested the comments and they should be fixed now. You don't have to sign in to comment, and you'll just have to type the little letters in the picture box to post. I really would love to see your comments -- for or against my opinions. I am open to change my mind! After all, I like intelligent discourse!
I'll be Back
I've been unfortunately ill for the last few days, and thus almost entirely missed the opening of free-agency, etc. I will be catching up, and then resume my posts later today - likely early evening. I apologize for the absence, and hope you continue to read my Lions thoughts and analysis.
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